Tuesday, June 23, 2015

A.M. Update

Good Morning,

It finally "seems" the Greek drama is over with the Tsipras led government (I'm not sure where Syriza stands on Tsipras) has accepted a bailout extension of the current program, crying uncle to the crushing of its banking system.

There were a few concessions made, but most of those were only because fiscal targets were no longer realistic after depositors pulled over $30 billion from the Greek Banking system and as mentioned last night, the ECB essentially owns the Greek banking system at this point.

Back in Greece, an extension of the current bailout program that expires at the end of the month is not very popular, it is a total and crushing defeat for Syriza and Greece, much like the original round of talks in which Syriza sought to end the bail out program and instead came away with nothing more than renaming the Troika, the "Creditors".

It's still not a done deal as Tsipras has to get the current bailout extension through Greek parliament, many of which believed in what they were doing and will likely be wondering why the country just went through 5 months of hardship and deposit flight to only be where they were before they came to power. And this is Greece and the EU, nothing ever seems to go as planned so I doubt the drama is over yet, but one interesting thing happened as posted in detail yesterday. Namely the EUR/USD move...

 EUR/USD losses since yesterday have hit -1%, the worst performing currency of the G8 so far this week.

I expected to see this on a Greek exit, however the signals were there and down it goes, as I always say, "Once a cycle ha been set-up, it is rarely abandoned" and down goes the EUR/USD on an apparent Greek deal.

As for Index futures, not all that impressive...
 This is ES, very choppy and lateral overnight opening in yesterday's range, actually right around yesterday's close as of now.

 NQ better shows the early negative divergences in Index futures taking hold this morning in line with the "Week Ahead" forecast as well as yesterday's expectations.

Even early VIX futures trade has a positive divergence so despite China seeing a market nearly down 5% rally some 7+% to close up about 2.2% and the apparent end of the Greek drama, well lets just say a reported deal, the market is not looking nearly as happy as you might expect this morning.


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