Tuesday, June 23, 2015

Quick Market Update

I see intraday volatility, but I'm trying to keep my eye on the ball, stay well away from the murder-holes and get the prize.

For instance, just in the past few minutes...


 This is the SPY since Thursday, this kind of range bounce chop that has barely moved since Thursday's close can be traded, it's dangerous and with the outstanding issues out there, the risk:reward profile isn't attractive, they are like murder-holes (in the true sense of the word).

SPY intraday, again barely any movement, but even on this small movement, it's already going negative.

As well as the IWM that posted the smallest on 1 min intraday positive divergence earlier, now going negative.

The TICK shows the story as well, flat most of the day, a little trend to the upside that sees a channel buster up and then one down, it's just volatile chop, not good trending trade material, although I think we are getting to that.

As I said last night and earlier today, yesterday's Doji star is the start of a reversal, but its lack of volume disqualifies it in my view from being a trustworthy signal, but everything else is pointing in the direction of a downside reversal, which is why I've expected something similar to yesterday to form in the area, but on increasing volume which makes the reversal candle 3-4 times more effective than without increasing volume over the previous trading day.
The daily SPY and the Star still in the range of the Doji Star yesterday.

Remember this expectation of a reversal candle right in this area as we have seen all day today was based on last night's post well before I saw any of today's price action and was mentioned again earlier today with examples. This is the prize or one of the signals we are there after the first part of the Week Ahead forecast was right on yesterday.

I have some potential trades, one might even be a decent long set up in BABA, I'd like to see a little better looking charts. I'm continuing what I do, but if it looks like an interesting, timely trade, I'll put it out along with others that I'm watching nearly minute by minute.

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