Tuesday, June 23, 2015

Quick Market Update

This update seemed particularly appropriate considering what I said in the last one about avoiding the murder holes in a tight range bound market, which is indicative of a reversal process as well which is even more risk for intraday trades.

Dead markets like today are not devoid of information or a message of the market, intact they are some of the most dangerous areas, even though they seem completely dead and boring.

 Since the last intraday update, look how much more the IWM's intraday 3C chart has given up. That's not a trade I would trust and it all started with a very small positive divergence which was your first clue this is a trade you might just want to step to the sidelines.

 It's quickly migrating through the intraday timeframes as the 2 min is negative

The 3 min was already leading negative, which is part of the bigger picture for the week and keeping your eye on the price, but the point is 3C made another , 3rd consecutive lower low today and I expect another to follow.

It's charts like this 5 min trend of the IWM that are showing us the bigger picture, especially for the week, the divergence here is huge compared to the previous negative and once again it starts with the warning of no base or base of any size or strength to support the asset.

Intraday breadth is also continuing to break down as the TICK moves out of the channel. I'd still expect volatility relative to the flat trade of most of the day, but at the end of the day you know what kind of closing candle I'd like to see.



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