Friday, June 5, 2015

A.M. Update

Good morning. Other than a tame 1.5% gain in the Shanghai Comp compared to recent action that sent it above 5k for the first time since 2009, Asia was rather dull. Europe isn't looking great right now with a cool deal of the markets down nearly 1%.

As you likely know, OPEC left production unchanged at 30 mm bbl a day, this sent crude higher as we have expected a bounce from the charts...
 However at 8:30 Non-Farm payrolls beat at 280k, well above the 226k consensus expected sending the $USD higher as we also expected at 8:30, which sent oil lower at 8:30.

We'll se what it looks like in the cash market.

 This is the USD on the better than expected jobs report, which seems to give Yellen the go-ahead with a June rate hike as not only did jobs beat, but wages came in stronger than expected suggesting the "slack" in the labor market is tightening.

Everything else sold off on the knee jerk reaction including equities, bonds, commodities, oil, gold, etc.

As also expected, the EUR/USD came down (see to the far right on this 16 min chart).

 ES knee jerked lower, but looks ready for an intraday move higher.

And Treasuries which we are watching for signs of a short term bottom knee jerked lower on the jobs print, but also have an intraday positive divergence suggesting a move higher.

Really none of this matters too much until we see what the cash market does and that may take a little time considering it's an  options expiration Friday.

I'll let you know as soon as I see it.


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