Early Indications

Honestly not much has changed since yesterday except for a weaker than expected open.

The charts are still falling apart...

 SPY intraday at a new leading negative low, this should keep moving down the time-line chain.

 SPY 5 min which has been the "gas in the tank" timeframe, also leading negative

 The 10 min charts in all of the major averages surprisingly leading negative sooner than I expected.

As for the SPX daily with a 100-day (yellow) and a 150-day (orange) moving average, I'd like to see a confirmation candle on the close, maybe something similar to what I drew in yellow- representing a dark filled candle opening at the highs and closing near the lows.

 I've spent a fair amount of the morning trying to keep up with Greek headlines, it seems there's quite a bit of fear as the opening TICK print was near -1400.

Did you hear some of the talk coming out of Europe, the EU's Dijsselbloem with an ultimatum, "Non-compliance is not an option", as if the Greek government didn't know what they are facing. It sounds a bit like a veiled threat. 


Germany's Economic Minister says a Greek-exit would be a disaster and then a lot of talk about how it would be difficult for Spain, Ireland and Portugal to do the same-leave the EU because of a strong Euro and this from none other than Chancellor Merkel. The EU isn't worried about losing Greece, they're worried that Greece will set an example that the rest of the periphery will follow, especially Spain.

I hadn't considered this before, but I wonder if this could be enough to set off an armed conflict, after all, what does it matter if the EU is under attack from the inside or out?

In any case, market participants seem very eager to cut lose risk as we have already seen in our Pro-sentiment indicators this week.

 VXX looks a lot like a head fake with a clear area of support and a break below that yesterday.

Today VXX is up about 2+% so far and our recent VXX calls up near +17% today on the day.

 The VXX 5 min leading divergence is pretty impressive and confirms the SPY 5 min leading negative

UVXY's 5 min is even more impressive with confirmation in XIV as well

XIV 5 min-the divergences go well beyond 5 min, but these are largely longer term signals that have been in place.

Interestingly, the VIX futures themselves look like this...

Leading positive and on a 30 min chart.

Obviously I don't feel very good about the market's prospects.