Friday, June 12, 2015

Quick Look at Leading Indicators

For a more in depth look at Leading Indicators see, Leading Indicators Not Helpful For the Market's Bulls

Today's charts show why we call them leading indicators, which makes the post above covering the longer term/bigger picture, that much more important.

 This is the intraday HYG vs. SPX (green), HYG is slightly leading intraday, but you must consider where it is in propper perspective...

 HYG pulling the SPX down toward it as it failed to ramp with the market.

 This is VXX-Short term VIX futures in blue vs. the SPX in green. I've inverted the SPX's price so you can see the relative performance between the two which should be very similar.

VXX should be a bit higher on SPX weakness here. However the SPOT VIX below...

 Is right on. I suspect the VXX price action has less to do with any potential attempt to slam the VIX pr anything like that.

 I mentioned the 30 year yield recently has been leading the SPX (green), here it leads to the upside and leads to the downside, again pulling the SPX toward it.

 Commodities are acting the same way this week

And High Yield Credit is doing the same, although it has now made a new lower low for this cycle.

All in all, not good for the market going forward.

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