Monday, June 29, 2015

Early Update

It will take the cash market averages/3C charts a few minutes to an hour or so, depending on the timeframe to reset to include the cash market reaction. Intraday 1 min charts will react first and reset first, but we can see in futures what has been going on for the most part.

Remember last week was the reversal process to topping area off the June 15th lows bounce cycle, June 15th was stage 1, the bounce is stage 2, the reversal process was stage 3.

We are well in to stage 4 decline right now, ES 5 min...
 ES 5 min showing the reversal process forecast for last week, remember Monday was the "early strength" followed by the reversal process and shot to downside or stage 4 for the mini June 15th cycle and stage 4 for the larger Primary cycle (returning to lower lows and a break of the SPX-150-day moving average heading toward the October lows to make a new low in the Primary trend.

This 5 min ES chart shows that reversal both on the short term June 15th cycle and back to the primary trend cycle which was at its reversal process at the May head fake move-that was the end of the stage 3 top/reversal process for the market's primary trend.

Since the futures open the 3 min chart (faster and more sensitive) has shown some dip buying, but it looks like it's starting to fail, we'll be able to better confirm that with the cash market charts.

SPX nearing the 150-ma, there should be some temporary loitering on an intraday basis at the 150 ma.
 SPX daily chart and 150 sma

So far the intraday 1 min (fastest chart) since the cash open, a small intraday positive divergence, a gap fill attempt would be likely.

As the next time frames catch up and start giving indications as the market resets underlying trade after such a gap down, I'll update those charts.

SO FAR THERE'S NO ACCUMULATION IN HYG AS A SHORT TERM LEVER TO TRY TO HELP THE MARKET.

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