Market Likely to Hit 1-Day Oversold

Our forecast for The Week Ahead for both this past Friday and Friday the 19th, was for the June 15th bounce cycle to end/fail and for the next significant move to be the market SLICE right through the SPX's support at the 150-day moving average, that is in the history books now.

 SPX daily chart with the 150-day moving average in pink. There was support at the average twice, the last time was the start of the June mini-cycle on the 15th, look at today's CLEAN slice right through the average and a VERY nasty daily candle if it closes like this.

It also looks like we'll have a definitive 1-day oversold condition in internals.

 The SPX intraday breaking the 150-ma's area.

 This is ES intraday, same negative a.m. highs and a positive low, but still only on the shortest intraday charts  which is why I wouldn't dare dream about closing core shorts here for any reason, well any reason that we might have right now.

The averages have put in some 1 min divergences intraday, but haven't built on those and fear/panic selling has just run them over.

 Earlier SPY 1 min divergence run over and now trying for a second, but without divergences migrating to longer timeframes, there's no probability of a bounce, which is great for core shorts, not great if you are looking to open new shorts or put positions, overall I'll take the downside though as we have been set up for this move for a while.

QQQ intraday confirming downside, any intraday divergences run over.

And an IWM intraday divergence earlier just run over.

This is FEAR/Panic, typical bear market action.

Futures intraday

NQ futures intraday are more in line, confirmation.

TF futures are more like ES/SPX futures intraday, but not much beyond 1 min.

 This is the TICK, it has increased volatility with -1250 and a tag of the upside +1250 (white).

 This looks like a lot of volume as in a short term capitulation event on a gap, depending on the close, whether we get a hammer or some late day rally in to the close.

The same with the Q's.

There's strong confirmation of the move lower, as short term divergences intraday may come up with something, but anything in the 2+ min range is confirming downside.

 IWM 2 min confirmation

QQQ 3 min confirmation

SPY 5 min confirmation. This is the problem for any divergence, if it doesn't hit these longer timeframes, it won't stick unless there's outside intervention

Our custom TICK is confirming (overall) stage 4 panic selling.

As price moves lower, our TICK indicator has had some fluctuations intraday, but the trend has moved lower and lower in breadth. panic selling.

I'd expect more central bank activity overnight the way the US market is going, it's not going to help overnight Asian/European markets unless there's another intervention, but even at this point it looks like the SNB (central bank intervention) overnight is starting to fail as well.

 EUR/USD 1 min going negative after the SNB intervention bailed it out early this morning.

The Euro futures are going negative

And $USDX futures going positive.

THIS IS LOOKING BAD, OR GOOD IF YOU HAVE YOUR CORE SHORTS IN PLACE.