Monday, June 29, 2015

Core Shorts Up +7% Today Alone

A Basic Portfolio of Core Shorts including FAZ (3x Short Financials) which we have put out as a trade idea as recently as June 12th, Trade Idea: XLF Trend (short) which is now up 3% in XLF short since and +7.10% in FAZ, the favored trade...

Our Trade Idea: XLF Trend (short) / FAZ long at the red arrow. Our XLF/Financials Broad Update was posted 6/17, 1-day off the all-time closing highs in XLF with the following excerpt,

"I like Financials in the area short as its an excellent entry and much lower risk than say something like an entry in transports right now."

And our most recent post from Friday the 26th of June, XLF Position Follow Up with this excerpt:


"All in all, XLF is still in an excellent area. For an options/Put trade, I'd want to see a run higher to get a discount on the put premium, otherwise I like XLF short as either an equity short or the 2-3x leveraged inverse ETFs (long) like SKF or FAZ."

That would be approx. a -2.4% gain in XLF short or a near 7% gain in FAZ long since Friday.

XLF has decisively broken below its triangle's apex as expected in Friday's XLF Position Follow Up post.

Other core positions in the basic core short positions in the most basic core short portfolio include SRTY, covered on Wednesday June 24th, It's Equally As Hard Not to Like the IWM Short Here As Well which was one day off its all time high and at a -2.82% IWM short gain since then or the preferred SRTY 3x short IWM  (long)  core short with an approx. +8.5% gain since.

IWM is off recent highs and sliced through its 50-day moving average today on volume.

IBB-NASDAQ Bio-Techs is Another Favorite trend /core short or the preferred 2x leverage BIS recently covered last week, Thursday June 25th with IBB Short/ NDX Biotechs Looks Very Interesting 

"Charts are on the way... I like the BIS- 2x short NDX biotech ETF as well (long)"

and the follow up post with charts the same day, IBB / NASDAQ BioTech Follow Up.

IBB had a beautiful, textbook head fake set-up with 3 months of perfect resistance at the $368.25 level, without a single close above the level through the head fake set up until the head fake/failed breakout move that was standing out like a sore thumb last week. Today the IBB short is up for us +4.04% (or IBB down -4.04%) since our last short call and the preferred BIS 2x short IBB (long) is up +8% since last Thursday's call. IBB closed below the head fake area today (red trend line) as 3C charts showed us through the distribution through the entire head fake/false breakout and closed right at the 50-day moving average.

And NASDAQ 100/QQQ Short is another rounding out my basic core short portfolio. Although covered every day, our last position call was Thursday June 18th with Trade Idea: SPECULATIVE QQQ and the same day, Trade Idea: QQQ Put Position Fill-Out. Although the preferred trade was Options, it's left open as a QQQ short, the preferrer core short being SQQQ.

Since the call on the 18th the QQQ short is down -3.6% (or up if you took the QQQ short.
Here at the red arrow you can see the last QQQ short call with only two days closing above that level at a 1 cent and 10 cent gain above the 18th's close. The Q's sliced through their 50-day (yellow) today as well as their 100-day on huge volume.

The preferred core short for QQQ is the 3x leveraged SQQQ which is up, +10% since then.

My own portfolio with basic core short positions without any options leverage is up +7% today and +14% over the last week since our Friday, June 19th The Week Ahead forecast called for Market strength on Monday and weakness/the reversal process after that:

"...thus far I have not put out the VXX long call/add-to call, one of the reasons is this SPY chart (1 min), if we close like this then the concept of 3C charts picking up where they left off kicks in and the most probable outcome would be some early week/Monday market strength"

Our Tracking Portfolio with ALL recent trade ideas is ranked #3 of 178.

However this is no where near expected gains, we are just breaking the next level as forecast as far back as April 2nd and in both of the past two Friday's The Week Ahead forecasts as we slice through recent support on our way to the October lows, at which point the whole game changes.

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