Market Management

Since our April 2nd Market Forecast in which we were looking for...

 Note where April 2nd is when the forecast was made which expected the resistance trendily at the 2015 triangle which only grew larger to see a head fake/false or failed breakout, then at 2 we expected some loitering around the apex or the breakout area before prices headed lower to the 100-day at 3, which is where we are now.

I expected some loitering and game playing around the 100-day, but ultimately, this time for it to fail as the head fake move that we see so often before a trend reversal was or is in place (at #2). So for me to do anything other than sit on longer term core short positions patiently as we have been waiting patiently for this scenario to play out exactly as it has since April 2nd, I'd need to see something much stronger than today's intraday trade. When I said the market would have to do some serious work early this week to be trust worthy of any short term counter probability trades, I meant more than part of an afternoon.

This 1 min SPY positive leading divgerence looks impressive, but it's a 1 min chart and only a couple of hours at most of accumulation, that won't support much of anything.

 Remember the flag and the break above it that failed? From these failed moves come fast reversals, in just 3 days look where we are at the last stand or the most important for the SPX at the 100-day. Of course the 200 day is there, but the 100-day has been defining SPX support.

In essence since the failed attempt to break out of the flag and fast downside reversal, I would not trust a tight "V" reversal such as we have in place right now. The market needs to prove itself if it can bounce and give us some nice opportunities, otherwise I'm not moving off the rock I've been sitting on since April 2nd that has gone as we projected for a couple hours of a divergence on a 1 minute chart today.

It will have to do a lot more than that and even then, it's still a brief reprieve.