Market Update

Ooooh, how I hate these dull Monday mornings. However it's the dull markets that get you so even though there's not much jumping off the charts, we have to pay attention as if there were so we're not caught in a surprise move that we would have otherwise seen coming had we payed more attention.

The $USD decline off last Friday's 1-day bounce is returning to the downtrend that is coming back down from a counter trend bounce. I believe the $USD will make a new cycle )primary trend) lower low soon enough.

3 min $USDX chart. I mention it not only because we expected the knee jerk reaction higher to Payrolls to fail as it is here, but because it should have some influence on both oil and gold (the first we have a longer term trend short in and a very short term speculative call in and gold I suspect is going to be heading higher as it finishes up a reversal process which I'll cover in more detail).

As for the market, I would start paying attention to the intraday NYSE TICK's channel.

 Thus far TICK has confirmed downside , but now it's getting toward some extremes on the downside at > -1250 so it may produce an intraday flameout in which case you'll want to be watching volume as well of the averages intraday,

As for the averages, this is really quite dull, but everything has to start somewhere.

 The DIA 1 min intraday chart with very clear negatives from last week and in line (3C price/trend confirmation) at the green arrow and since, while not exceedingly exciting, there is some constructive work being done in the DIA (white arrow). The thing is, these can change very quickly at 1 min charts only (either way).

I do suspect the market does put in the work and does find a toe hold for a brief period, maybe enough to get some trades off at better prices and less risk, in the meantime it's helping our core short positions nicely.

 DIA 5 min with a 5 min positive to the far right, not huge, especially in context of the rest of the trend, but it's there, still there's quite a bit of work to be done. An intraday flameout/capitulation event would make a big difference to the market in this particular regard.

QQQ 1 min with last week's negative (one of the reasons VXX/UVXY were added and added to), then downside confirmation at the green arrow. The white positive divergence isn't anything particularly special,  but it is a change in character and changes in character lead to changes in trends (respective to the timeframe we are dealing with).

 The 3 min QQQ chart shows last week's negative sending it lower and it is still showing downside 3C confirmation so as you can see, there is still work to be done before we can consider any kind of bounce from here.

 SPY 1 min intraday has locked in its first intraday positive divergence, it is still just a 1 min chart, but again, changes in character...

And there's some hint of that divergence migrating to the next timeframe at a 2 min chart so it may see more work done to find a toe hold and start trending more laterally.

It's pretty tedious and still dull, but there are some minor changes in character and these can change quickly.

I think what is probably most interesting right now is HYG's intraday charts, mostly the 1 min. HY Credit is typically the first lever they'll turn to when they try to bounce or ramp the market so the fact its showing any thing positive at all is interesting, although it won't amount to much as damaged as HYG is. We don't need much, just some price concession , letting the trade come to us.

Otherwise, it's mostly about trade management for our core/trend short positions already built and management at this time is largely about patience.