Thursday, July 9, 2015

AAPL May Be Setting Up a Head Fake Long/Bounce

This is NOT a TRADE CALL/IDEA as of yet, this is an early heads up.

Like the rest of the market, AAPL has some more work to do before I'd consider adding long risk here.

However in the mean time, we do have some events that have at least caught my attention.

 This is AAPL's 1 min intraday chart, all new divergences will start on the fastest chart, also the smallest amount of accumulation or distribution and as they strengthen, they'll migrate to longer timeframe charts showing additional accumulation or distribution. AAPL would certainly be an interesting stock to bounce here given its weight and psychology with regard to the market.

A closer look at AAPL intraday we see yesterday's close was hit with a stop run (white arrow), this is the same area the 1 min leading positive chart above is still leading positive.

Since more supply has come in to the market (AAPL), likely short sellers, which means AAPL is cheap right now and there's supply available, two of the main reasons head fakes such as stop runs are pulled off in the first place.

Right now, just like the market averages and many assets, AAPL is positive until about the 2 min chart.

THIS IS NOT ENOUGH ACCUMULATION FOR A HIGH PROBABILITY TRADE, BUT IT HAS TO START SOMEWHERE.

AAPL would also be in need of a reversal process, a sharp "V" reversal is an event, most reversals are a "U" or "W" shaped process which also gives the longer charts more time to put in stronger signals as the asset is accumulated on the cheap in a stable environment.

The 3 min chart,  is not there yet.

This chart will have to go positive and really I'd like to see the 5 min chart positive before entertaining adding long risk here, but this is on the radar and could turn itself around in a matter of hours, although a day or so would be more appropriate given the reversal process.

Just one to keep on the radar for now.

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