Market Update-Transition Point?

It's starting to look like it. As I said early this morning in the 10:30 a.m. Opening Indications:

"My initial take on this was yesterday in the late afternoon we saw some accumulation, as I mentioned we didn't get the normal signals I'd like to see and that was a matter of lack of time, but if we had, I'd fill out the partial positions in IWM and SPY calls.

My initial take until we get more data is this is the same concept for Pros, the gap up didn't afford them the time to fill out positions they were opening late in the afternoon and they are bringing prices down to finish that process.

That's my interpretation of the open thus far until we get some different signals that would suggest otherwise so for the moment I'll continue to hold the short term bounce positions, UVXY short and 2 partial positions in IWM and SPY calls as well as leaving the primary trend core shorts in place."


This is the exact same idea we saw in to the afternoon trade/closing trade yesterday, Quick Update-CHARTS ARE STARTING TO COME ALIVE

I have a lot of charts, they are short term, but I want to give you a bird's eye view, hopefully they don't change too much before I get all of these uploaded and posted.

 The NYSE TICK (intraday breadth) is very mellow and very even, unlike earlier TICK charts.

It's the TICK trend on our custom indicator that allows us to see trends that may not otherwise be visible.

 The downside right off the open fits with the theory from above in this morning's, Opening Indications. Just the same as you or I, smart money is not going to chase prices higher, they are going to bring them down and accumulate at lower prices, the same as we would.

The initial TICK trend intraday today reflects prices coming down, but as the SPY starts to turn more lateral, forming that "U" shaped reversal process discussed earlier, it looks like the TICK has just about maxed out and is near a transition point back to the upside. This is a VERY early interpretation, but it's inline with some other charts and I'll update it.

 Considering the AAPL post earlier and some Semi-conductor ETFs looking pretty decent, as far as we can go with that today, it's interesting that the QQQ intraday is sharply improving off yesterday's already [positive change in character, with a small negative on the open to bring prices down.

 The IWM intraday since yesterday afternoon is showing some improvement here.

The 2 min chart is also showing some improvement, it's not the screaming, chart jumping off the screen divergence I want to see, but this is a process.

 Even the IWM 3 min chart is looking better intraday and positive at yesterday's late afternoon trade.

The intraday SPY looks to be improving as price starts moving more lateral than down in that "U" shape seen at a reversal process.

 Even the 3 min chart is showing improvement as prices come down in what could be a constructive pullback.

 ES is just starting to turn back to the upside intraday

It looks like Russell 2000 futures are as well.

And while early, I wouldn't be surprised if NASDAQ futures did as well.

 Interestingly, VIX futures are showing a deep negative divergence intraday.

From VIX futures to our UVXY (2x long VXX VIX short term futures) which we are short...

 It has a leading negative divergence today.

As does its 2 min chart

And the inverse of VXX/UVXY that moves WITH the market, XIV is showing a confirming leading positive divergence. Interestingly, there seem to be stronger confirming signals in VIX assets than even the averages, but that's still a give-away.

I added volume here as XIV is making a top run move so we want to watch for volume in these assets and divergences with that volume showing there has been a reaction.

And XIV 2 min is also moving positive intraday.

As is its 3 min chart which means there's migration or strengthening in the divergences.

For now these are still not popping off the screen so I'm not making any new moves, but it looks like we are in a process and I'm looking for the pivot in that process and the divergence that make adding additional positions worthwhile.