Today the market, really since the head fake move we forecast on Tuesday, has felt pretty wonky as coming in to this week it had a very strong bounce set up and I have to assume that this is still in effect.
The UVXY position is slightly down, the IWM position is down, but gained +25% so far (higher earlier) and yesterday's SPY calls are up +15% in the green.
I still get the same feeling I posted earlier, there was some late day accumulation yesterday which was the best signal of the day and this morning's gap didn't allow them to finish accumulating, I sure as heck wouldn't have added to the SPY calls on this morning's gap up so that's what it feels like they are doing right now, trying to finish accumulating at lower pricers, but to be sure and to add to SPY/IWM calls, I need to see migration of the divergence, meaning charts longer than 2 min to go positive.
Right now we look like this...
This is an intraday 1 min SPY chart, the leading positive divergence from yesterday can be clearly seen and thus far we have held in line today as 3C has not plummeted lower.
High Yield Corporate Credit, which in this case is almost exclusively used to ramp/support the market is showing late day accumulation yesterday and holding flat today.
HYG 1 min
UVXY (2x VXX) is showing the late day distribution yesterday confirming the market averages late day accumulation as it moves opposite the market and today it is also confirming the additional leading negative downside on the intraday 1 min chart.
The 2 min chart for all intents and purposes is doing the same.
However as was the trading plan earlier, nothing has changed, I still need to see additional evidence that accumulation is strengthening and that means 3 and 5 min charts going positive before I'll add any more short term bounce long risk.
Otherwise, I'll just sit on these positions until it's time to close them and open new short trades.
I'll bring you more as I get it, but this has definitely been a spastic market and I guess we can give it some room and understanding as to why, but that understanding ends with that sentence.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
-
Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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