Market Update-should come down intraday

This is a strange day for me, the market did exactly what we expected with the sox-200 break and a nice looking reversal hammer in place.

SPX daily

With all of the other recent signals, I'd expect the intraday charts to be a slam-dunk confirming accumulation of the head fake move, this is not for anything other than a short term trade like we would take and then using the price strength to sell in to in a big way, the same we would do.

However, I'm just not seeing the head fake confirmation today that I'd expect to see. Granted the reversal off intraday lows was a very sharp "V" and that's why I've been hoping the TICK would give in and let market prices fall a bit so we can get a wider reversal process and stronger divergences for a bounce...

And it looks like the intraday uptrend in TICK is over and we should see some market downside, but in the meantime, this is about all we have on a day in which we'd normally have a VERY clear divergence for a short term bounce which would be sold in to by smart money.

 QQQ 2 min doesn't have any kind of divergence, just in line today which is not the confirmation I'm looking for to increase the size of the 2 bounce positions.

 The 3 min chart looks just as bad, well it's in line, but not leading positive.

 The IWM chart like UVXY and others has put in a 1 min intraday positive which is a start, but not confirmation by itself.

 This IWM 3 min chart's 3C signal should be flying at this morning's head fake.

The SPY actually looks the best, it has the strongest charts going in to today.

 For instance, this 3 min chart leading in to today was already leading positive.

However, on a faster intraday 1 min chart below..

Again we aren't getting anything better than in line / confirmation, rather than positive.

This is odd. I'm not willing to increase long risk without additional charts showing some stronger signals. I'm thinking one of 3 scenarios is likely, 1) the market comes back down, makes a bit of a wider reversal process rather than today's sharp "V" reversal off the lows and we get the divergences we should see on the move lower, maybe toward today's intraday lows, the TICK suggests price should come down as does the intraday VXX.

This 1 min intraday positive divergence after the negative at intraday highs, suggests VXX moves up and the market comes down soon, this would give the market another chance to straighten out this bounce platform/base.

The SPY 1 min and QQQ 1 min also suggest we see a move lower soon. If we get a stronger base, stronger signals on that move lower, I'll add to the 2bounce positions that are open as partial positions now.

The second possibility is Wall St. doesn't even want to try to make a quick buck on the long side as they sell in to price strength and short in to it, which would be a first and a major change of character suggesting they are willing to sell in to a bounce or short in to it, but they are not willing to put any money at risk on the anticipated bounce which again is a strange scenario, but the market is changing and perhaps they are with it.

The last scenario is that the market just slices through the 200-day and moves to a new lower low. This doesn't make a lot of sense considering all of the other signals we've had in support of a bounce, but it's a possibility and in that case you can see why I wouldn't want to add to small bounce positions without evidence.

I still think our original expectation is the highest probability, but to get there from here, the market needs to come down intraday, smart money doesn't buy strength, they buy weakness and sell strength especially now.

So until I see the evidence, I'm not making a move. If we get a bounce from here without additional chart evidence, I'll be closing the bounce longs in to the move and using the move for the same reason Wall St. would be using it, to sell or sell short in to.

This is why today is more or less quiet right now, we're waiting to see which way this is going to go and we need the market to come down a bit for our first and main scenario or as I have outlined above, there are ways to handle alternative scenarios, but now you see why I don't close core shorts in a market like this, they make money on moves lower that more than make up for any speculative bounce trades.