Market Update

Our downside target has been hit and there are a few interesting developments, although as I said yesterday and this morning, I want to confirm accumulation in to any downside scenario before adding to the bounce positions that are so far IWM calls and UVXY short.

 The downside SPX target of $2050 was hit, I'd like to see some volume pickup in the area, but I'm already seeing the "Freaking out" with multiple financial media outlets calling out the break of the SPX 200-day moving average, so that's what we want in a head fake move.

 Additionally the TICK intraday has been trending down all morning, but as it broke our downside target area, it broke out of its downtrend channel, this isn't confirmation, but it's the right track.

Our custom TICK indicator is also showing improvement since the break below the SPX's 200-ma.

This is the intraday 1 min SPY which is in line, we need to see a positive divergence here and this "V" shaped reversal would likely be way too sharp so I'd expect to see more lateral/sideways reversal process which would give divergences time to develop. Again, I'd like to see some large volume on an intraday flameout or short term selling event.

ES/SPX futures intraday are still holding that earlier positive divergence, it just needs to build on that from here. 

Very few traders are going to buy long under the 200-day moving average which is why it makes a perfect head fake area, we just need the confirmation that smart money is buying down here and to do that, they need volume so watch for that as well.