UVXY Follow Up

This chart is exactly why I left room in UVXY short yesterday, Trade Idea: Opening UVXY (Short) Position.

You can see yesterday's divergence and the partial position was opened leaving room for the potential break of the 200-day moving average (SPX) scenario. Thus far the scenario is exactly as envisioned, the next thing is to confirm divergences and while this is not what I'd consider full confirmation yet, UVXY should not have a deeper leading negative divergence in a scenario in which the market is pulling a real move rather than a head fake. A real break below the SPX 200-day should see assets like VXX and UVXY with intraday 1 min charts leading to the upside, not seeing signs of distribution.

So far so good, everything has moved exactly as anticipated yesterday, right now it's about time and he reversal process, but as I mentioned yesterday, the last head fake move below the SPX's 150 sma which was support was an intraday event and the bounce started right off that intraday break of the 150-ma so it doesn't need to be a 2-day process, but it needs a bit more confirmation and reversal process than we have now.


Otherwise, I an't say I'm unhappy to see the core position portfolio in the green by 4% today alone, although the bounce would be nice to add some extra gains before the core positions take over again.