Thursday, July 16, 2015

NFLX Update

After NFLX's post earnings gap, I've answered a lot of emails today saying "NFLX is in line right now, I wouldn't be shorting it at the moment, but I'll keep an eye on it today".

So after having kept an eye on it all day, I still wouldn't say this is a short entry, but there has been deterioration which can be seen the price's ROC alone, but beyond that...
 Intraday turning negative 1 min'

The same at the stronger 3 min

And surprisingly out to 5 min intraday.

It would seem to me this strength is being sold in to. However to make this a short, I want to see that these charts are reflecting massive distribution, that doesn't take too long to get to from a 5 min chart going negative in a single day, but until it does, I'd say don't try to average it, not until there's excellent probabilities for doing so. So far there are pretty decent probabilities based on a single day's trade, but let the chart get to the point where it can't be ignored any longer.

There's a high probability that even though NFLX has a better relative performance than the overall market, when the overall market is ready to pivot down, NFLX will feel the pull.

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