I'm just on the edge of pulling the trigger on numerous positions such as QQQ puts, IWM puts (especially), maybe AAPL, and numerous others.
The intraday charts have really turned on these, for example...
IWM intraday leading negative looking very good for an options/put position.
QQQ intraday falling apart and not just the Q's, but...
NDX futures as well.
AAPL which I mentioned as being on the list of assets I'm closely looking at also showing some real deterioration intraday.
Then there's the same voice from late yesterday that said, "Don't chase the IWM lower". I think this has more to do with an options expiration max-pain pin which as we know typically opens and holds near Thursday's close, which I'm thinking might offer more deterioration, stronger signals and better timing.
I have already set up some decent exposure to the short side with positions in UVXY long, SQQQ long, SRTY long, BIS long, etc (all inverse ETFs), but for the final positions, the ones that are best timed especially for options, something is telling me, just be patient. Let those charts just make you panic to get positions out.
I think there's pretty decent exposure, but for the moment I think I'm going to go with my gut which is not a guess, it's an educated guess based on the charts, based on how the market normally reacts on options expiration and based on an overall view of Leading Indicators, market averages and Index futures.
I don't think a day is going to make a huge difference and it's actually right in line with expectations for this week that this process last the week.
If I see anything moving more than I'd anticipate and looking like it needs immediate attention in to the close, I'll put them out there. For now, we've done some work, actually a bit of it, I think I'm going to trust patience and the overall picture here.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
-
Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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