Thursday, July 16, 2015

Quick Market Update

I just went through the Futures charts again, there definitely looks to be several different trend changes coming, one looks to be the USD/JPY as mentioned yesterday.

The QQQ looks to be in a short squeeze (which wouldn't be surprising) while intraday internals look like this via TICK...
 Intraday NYSE TICK which other than the open with a +1500 print, has been in a VERY mellow range and trending down all morning.

Our custom TICK histogram shows yesterday's late day ugliness and then the closing improvement that went with several end of day positive divergence suggesting we would see a move higher from yesterday's closing levels and put in an more appropriate (relative proportionally sized and head fake) reversal process. My drawing is not great and the scaling is not very good for such a drawing, but this would be the Igloo/Chimney top/head fake in the SPY (yellow), but the real point of interest with the Q's acting as they are is the intraday TICK here as well trending down as intraday breadth gets worse.

I'd dare to say the Q's are looking like a blog-off move.

Among Index futures, like yesterday, one of the ugliest set of charts belongs to Dow futures which is now what I would have expected.

Among leading indicators, HY Credit is falling/divergent, HYG was used yesterday as we saw as a ramping/support lever, but today is pretty flat and not willing to chase risk much more. Other Leading Indicators like the SPX:RUT ratio are in worse position than they were yesterday, the Pro Sentiment indicators which were split yesterday with one leaning toward higher prices today are still split, but commodities continue to diverge lower and 30 year yields, which I suspected we'd see a pullback in TLT today which we did on the pen before it took off to the upside once again are creating an even wider leading divergence between yields and the SPX which is a negative leading indication for the market.

The Q's are just putting in their first intraday negative divergence since jumping in line so watch them and the IWM is worsening.

I'm going to take a closer look at the IWM, I might be much closer to an IWM position than I thought I'd be at this time of day.

More to follow, but this is looking like the typical head fake move, especially in the QQQ.

No comments: