Quick Leading Indicator Update

If you recall the last week+ our VIX Inversion (buy signal) put in several days of signals and it has had an excellent track record, this is one of several reasons the market's probabilities and base for a bounce started really clearing up Thursday and definitely by Friday.

However just as we have seen in multiple assets all day, this is being treated as a RISK OFF bounce, rather than a risk on bounce as we are seeing distribution in to higher prices everywhere we look.

Well I just looked at Leading Indicators and they too are showing the same thing, so much more clearly than last week's very difficult week to get decent signals after Tuesday and you saw why in the Friday to Friday closing percentage moves or lack of any moves at all.

So as the bounce carries on, distribution signals continue, but interestingly and as I'd hope to see, Leading Indicators are falling apart as well which I'll post in the Daily Wrap.

The VIX specifically was whacked around 3 pm or so to get the market to move (NDX mostly) above the intraday tight range that has persisted most of the day.

 ES 1 min intraday. To the far right price moves above the intraday flat range due to a VIX SLAM, both VIX and VXX were slammed to push price higher, but you see the negative 3C signal as price moves above what has been an intraday range, but that's far from all.

 The Russell 2000 futures didn't make the break above the intraday range.

The NASDAQ 100 futures did, they made the best move.

However during this, although we do have that very reliable VIX inversion signal from the last week or so which has always been followed by a bounce for as long as I have been using it (custom indicator), other leading indicators are souring on the day and especially in to the late day move above the range in the SPX and NDX.

The SPX:RUT Ratio which was one of the Leading Indicators supporting a bounce as of last week for this coming week has soured in to the late day break higher specifically.

VIX as I mentioned was whacked, it seems the market was having some trouble getting above the flat range thus they played Whack-a-VIX as is fairly common in short term market manipulation.

Yields which have been leading as shown Friday are flat or in line unlike last week's positive (market positive) stance. Both of our Pro Sentiment Indicators are falling off as pros aren't chasing the move, but selling it as we had called it last Friday, a RISK OFF bounce.

Also High Yield Corporate Credit, the first lever that is pulled for short term market manipulation is not only seeing 3C distribution as shown earlier, even though it has had a nice base and positive divergence along with the averages around the 10-15 min timeframe, but HYG price itself is not keeping up, rather than leading as usual as a lever, it's lagging.

High Yield Credit is also lagging.

Initially on Friday I foresaw this bounce lasting through most of this week, but that's inclusive of the stall and reversal process, essentially meaning the majority of market action this week would be centered around the bounce and the end of it or pivot where we want to open new positions.

We'll just have to keep on top of the charts to tell us when we are close enough to the pivot that it makes sense to open new positions, but so far we have EXCELLENT confirmation everywhere I look that this is a RISK OFF bounce, it is being sold in to hard and as I suspected and as has always been the case with a counter trend bounce/rally (as we have multiple lower highs and lower lows on the daily SPX chart), it is meant to be convincing with good daily price percentage changes, but more so, the best 3-day move this year. Counter trend bounces/rallies are always impressive, they need to be to overcome the negative sentiment of the preceding trend.

I'll post those charts in the Daily Wrap, I want to spend the last few minutes seeing if there's any thing that looks worthy of a trade.