Greece Has A Deal...Or Does It?

I suppose you could say Greece has a deal in theory. The "conditions" are in place to start "Formal Negotiations" on a new ESM bailout program that could be worth up to $85 billion Euros, but first Tsipras had to agree to worse measures than those which he campaigned against; worse measures than he walked away from in June and called a referendum in which he campaigned against the Greek people accepting those conditions. After the Greek people overwhelmingly voted against the measures, Tsipras capitulated to an even more draconian deal, which is not even formally on the table and won't be until various parliaments including Greece's pass immediate measures that Greece has resisted.

In other words as Bloomberg put it, Greece

"surrendered to European demands for immediate action to qualify for up to 86 billion euros ($95 billion) of aid Greece needs to stay in the euro" 

 Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said, "only after the Greek parliament agrees
with all the measures that have been decided this week, is there a base to reopen negotiations for the ESM program, which could take weeks. The Greek proposals of two days ago were insufficient.  They needed to take measures, which they can translate into actions. The current measures are fierce, but necessary to heal the Greek economy and government."

As for immediate financing to recapitalize Greek banks in what is being called a coup:

"Perhaps the toughest condition for Tsipras to swallow was Germany's insistence that Greek state assets worth up to 50 billion euros be placed in a trust fund beyond government reach to be sold off with proceeds going directly to pay down debt.

Berlin initially wanted to use a structure in Luxembourg managed by its own national development bank, KfW, but diplomats said it was flexible on the location. 

One diplomat said that was tantamount to turning Greece into a "German protectorate", stripping it of more sovereignty. 

But Merkel declared the matter a "red line" for Germany."

And for the general Greek position among parliamentary members,

Nikos Filis, the parliamentary spokesman for Tsipras’s governing party, said that Greece had been “waterboarded” by euro-area leaders during the negotiations and accused Germany of “tearing Europe apart” for the third time in the past century. “#ThisIsACoup” became the most-trending Twitter hashtag in both Greece and Germany overnight.

So Tsipras accepted far worse conditions than those he walked away from, those that caused him to call for a referendum on accepting those conditions which were overwhelmingly refused, now Greece must cede her national assets and soverwignty as they are sold off with proceeds outside of Greek control from which they'll only revive a small portion and this entire thing needs to be run and passed through various parliaments including the Greek parliament and put in to place before July 15th for FORMAL negotiations and ACT?UAL terms, far worse than those of the second bailout, can even begin.

So yes, I guess Tsipras vomiting all over Greek dreams and wishes and dropping his pants on every point, allowing Germany to declare total victory and humiliation of the Greek people, which actually isn't a formal deal, not even formal negotiations, is being called a Greek deal.

As for the market, the area we had been paying attention to late last week still looks like a base for a bounce as we have been expecting,

 ES 10 min positive divergence still suggests this has been a base area and we move higher from here, but first...

ES 1 min intraday overnight since futures trade opened yesterday is well up, but with a negative divergence.

NQ/NDX futures also have an intraday negative divergence. Both look like a pullback today is a strong probability.

The 3 min ES chart above also suggests a pullback.

As does the Russell 2000 futures 5 min chart which is the standard for a new /add to long trade, it must be positive.

I'd think we'll see some knee jerk reaction, but a pullback still looks probable. We'll see if there's anything we can work with if and when that happens, I'd expect it fairly early.