Another Intraday Trade / Day Trade

This is really speculative, if you are not very nimble and not watching the screen all day and if this will get you labelled a pattern day trader if you are not Regulation "T" compliant, then I'd skip it entirely, if you want to try to make a few percent on a quick intraday move, UVXY long looks like it could move with a market pullback.

GS is VERY Close As well

As you know, I prefer to phase in to core positions, it's the same way Wall Street does it, but for different reasons.

I'd like to add to the GS core short position, however I'd like to see it above >$166 before I would.

At that area I think it is a decent add to or if you like it, a good place to initiate a new short, I'd still leave room to add, this must be accounted for in your risk management before you enter 1 share of the trade. 

WE DON'T DOLLAR COST AVERAGE TO GET OUT OF LOSING TRADES, we occasionally phase in for other reasons, but it's part of our risk management plan before we enter which is one of the main differences.

Adding to AMZN Equity Core Short

I have approx. a 1/3 position size, I'll add probably another 1/3rd here above $272.50 which was one target, the rest I'll wait for a better entry, I'm hoping > $278

VERY Speculative -likely day trade-XLF June $20 Put

I think it will be closed before the end of the day.

If You Can Day Trade- FAZ

FAZ long right here would make for at least a decent day trade. Make sure you are Reg T. Compliant before getting in to a possible day trade.

I Would ALMOST Take an Intraday SPY Put for a Day Trade if the Longer Charts Weren't So Strong

I think we'll get a pullback, but the longer charts and the head fake/ bear trap are so strong, I wouldn't want to get caught on the other side of that.

I'm guessing we are in OP-EX Pin territory now, I'm also guessing around 2 p.m. after most contracts are closed the market will pull the shorts in with an intraday decline, again, I imagine Monday would be another move in the market, this time keeping the psychological (fear) pressure on the shorts and forcing a larger squeeze that gets us over the apex.

These quick gains are great, but the real trade is above the apex, for both the long positions and eventually the shorts.

I only close out Calls/Longs because the momentum today makes today the most profitable day for that specific call, a new one can always be started.

XLK, AAPL and Averages

I'm going to try to cover this quickly because there may be a change coming.

If it were me, I'd close Friday with a pattern that draws bears in, unless it closes above the apexes, then bears will likely have the weekend to worry about that move and Monday would be a nice day. However an important part of a short squeeze is to keep the pressure on, a weekend interrupting the emotional distress of getting squeezed is psychologically not the best plan of action and this is ALL psychological at this point, it's not about fundamentals, it's not even about QE in the very short term, the triangle set up on the whole is exactly about QE.

So, XLK was opened Wednesday, here's the P/L

At the $.80 fill, XLK returned a 1.45 day gain of  +17.65%, I meant to close half the position and pulled a fat thumb and closed it all, that's ok, it was a bit big and the AAPL position from yesterday is Tech and up nearly 20% right now.

 XLK 60 min, do I want to add/re-establish if I can at lower prices? Heck yes, although this is a bit bigger than risk management allows, while I'd never encourage it, if I feel a signal is very strong, I kind have a "Strike while the iron is hot" thing, but this is from years of trusting 3C signals, I'd never encourage you to violate risk management.

Yesterday was actually the perfect entry, better than today because it has the downside momentum, clearly a head fake.

Will we get a chance to add? I don't know, but yesterday was the time to enter the position.

 Intraday, this could just be a book mark holding positions in their approx. area which is appealing to shorts, but typically this would cause a pullback which is what I'll assume. If we get a market pullback today, I view it as a gift from the market gods.

 AAPL broke out with confirmation, I wouldn't have added here as I already opened a rather large position at much better prices and circumstances.

A high probability like "AAPL will move higher", is not the same as a high probability trade which reduces risk and gives very strong signals at that moment, not yesterday.

 2 min chart shows where smart money buys and where they hold.

The 10 min chart keeps growing for AAPL, ANY reasonable pullbck with good 3C signals is an opportunity, otherwise I'd only consider AAPL long equity at this point or maybe TECL long as mentioned yesterday.

 The Q's as of this capture still seem to be calling for an intraday pullback, longer signals are stable so it would be a gift.

The IWM is the same

As is the SPY, actually this looks more like a pullback than the others, My Guess is XLF is rotating out today and Tech in, 3C confirms so I'm VERY happy to have closed XLF this morning. I will add at the right area.

Closing Half of the XLK Call Just Opened

USO Charts and Call P/L

Earlier I saw some charts that were right on the edge of turning toward the bullish side for USO, I was going to update the position, but the charts didn't make it, I confirmed in Crude (CL) futures and decided this is the best I'm likely to get for now on the USO call. The SCO leveraged Crude short is still in place as a longer term trend, it has so little draw down that it doesn't effect portfolio risk at all, right now it's approximately 1/4 allocated risk or half of a percent of portfolio before margin.

I'll show you why I have that as well. First the P/L on the closed USO June $33 Call position.

At a fill of $1.32, the position gained 5.6% which hedges the SCO Short ETF just fine, that ETF in turn should start to make some solid gains. I didn't enter the USO call as a hedge, but that's the way it worked out, sometimes you get the bear, sometimes the bear gets you.

 After having done my USO analysis, I confirmed with this 15 min chart of Crude Futures (/CL) which is a good timeframe for the range/chop crude has been in.

As far as tactical timing for closing the position...

 This 1 min CL chart confirmed what I saw in USO.

USO 1 min was in line for most of the recent trend up, but it has gone negative and with the reason for the trade (15 min chart) deteriorating, there's no point in holding this any longer.

I way I have found to work well for me in making these decisions beyond technical tools is simply asking yourself, "Self, if you had the $6600 dollars sitting there in the account right now, would you buy USO right now?" If the answer is no, then there's a fairly high probability that it's not worth holding either (there are some caveats of course like we don't like chasing trades, but imagine it hadn't moved yet and I was trying to make the decision).

As for the SCO short leveraged ETF,...

Remember during the Bush II years crude jumped from the teens to the mid 100's? I do, I had entered Prudhoe Petroleum Trust when oil was around $14 a barrel and was getting a 12% dividend at the time which increased as price also eventually increased past $100 from about $12 the $12 I paid for it. I didn't catch all the gains, the only stock pick I ever gave my Uncle who worked for a MAJOR Wall St. Investment Bank with a 2 letter ticker, he ended up catching almost all of the trend. This is when I started relying on my Trend Channel which was my first indicator I received an award for.

In any case, you see that top in 2008 in USO, I called that within a week, if you consider oil had been up for about 6 years, calling the top within a week was an impressive feat. That VERY SAME WEEK, CRAMER was on his Money gone Mad or whatever his show is (I obviously don't watch) and told his viewers that on the next EIA petroleum report (Wednesdays), if it is bad and send oil lower, to buy USO and he called it a "Contrarian" trade.

Can anyone explain to me how millions of viewers all doing the same thing on the same day at virtually the same time can possibly be "Contrarian"? 

In any case, that week oil crashed, that's when you remember that Cramer is above all, a GS Alumni first and foremost so I suspect the call was to let GS sell in to demand, thus I don't watch the show or CNBC.

I believe when the global economy is hit hard by the market going down (Banks will get destroyed , which is why I think Bernie gave them this 4 year rally instead of a bailout as they have had record quarterly profits), manufacturing and all other kinds of demand will hit oil hard, I think the Yen carry will be over and the rising $USD will further effect oil on the downside.

Closing USO June $33 Call