Friday, June 7, 2013

XLK, AAPL and Averages

I'm going to try to cover this quickly because there may be a change coming.

If it were me, I'd close Friday with a pattern that draws bears in, unless it closes above the apexes, then bears will likely have the weekend to worry about that move and Monday would be a nice day. However an important part of a short squeeze is to keep the pressure on, a weekend interrupting the emotional distress of getting squeezed is psychologically not the best plan of action and this is ALL psychological at this point, it's not about fundamentals, it's not even about QE in the very short term, the triangle set up on the whole is exactly about QE.

So, XLK was opened Wednesday, here's the P/L


At the $.80 fill, XLK returned a 1.45 day gain of  +17.65%, I meant to close half the position and pulled a fat thumb and closed it all, that's ok, it was a bit big and the AAPL position from yesterday is Tech and up nearly 20% right now.

 XLK 60 min, do I want to add/re-establish if I can at lower prices? Heck yes, although this is a bit bigger than risk management allows, while I'd never encourage it, if I feel a signal is very strong, I kind have a "Strike while the iron is hot" thing, but this is from years of trusting 3C signals, I'd never encourage you to violate risk management.

Yesterday was actually the perfect entry, better than today because it has the downside momentum, clearly a head fake.

Will we get a chance to add? I don't know, but yesterday was the time to enter the position.

 Intraday, this could just be a book mark holding positions in their approx. area which is appealing to shorts, but typically this would cause a pullback which is what I'll assume. If we get a market pullback today, I view it as a gift from the market gods.

 AAPL broke out with confirmation, I wouldn't have added here as I already opened a rather large position at much better prices and circumstances.

A high probability like "AAPL will move higher", is not the same as a high probability trade which reduces risk and gives very strong signals at that moment, not yesterday.

 2 min chart shows where smart money buys and where they hold.

The 10 min chart keeps growing for AAPL, ANY reasonable pullbck with good 3C signals is an opportunity, otherwise I'd only consider AAPL long equity at this point or maybe TECL long as mentioned yesterday.

 The Q's as of this capture still seem to be calling for an intraday pullback, longer signals are stable so it would be a gift.

The IWM is the same


As is the SPY, actually this looks more like a pullback than the others, My Guess is XLF is rotating out today and Tech in, 3C confirms so I'm VERY happy to have closed XLF this morning. I will add at the right area.

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