USO Charts and Call P/L

Earlier I saw some charts that were right on the edge of turning toward the bullish side for USO, I was going to update the position, but the charts didn't make it, I confirmed in Crude (CL) futures and decided this is the best I'm likely to get for now on the USO call. The SCO leveraged Crude short is still in place as a longer term trend, it has so little draw down that it doesn't effect portfolio risk at all, right now it's approximately 1/4 allocated risk or half of a percent of portfolio before margin.

I'll show you why I have that as well. First the P/L on the closed USO June $33 Call position.

At a fill of $1.32, the position gained 5.6% which hedges the SCO Short ETF just fine, that ETF in turn should start to make some solid gains. I didn't enter the USO call as a hedge, but that's the way it worked out, sometimes you get the bear, sometimes the bear gets you.

 After having done my USO analysis, I confirmed with this 15 min chart of Crude Futures (/CL) which is a good timeframe for the range/chop crude has been in.

As far as tactical timing for closing the position...

 This 1 min CL chart confirmed what I saw in USO.

USO 1 min was in line for most of the recent trend up, but it has gone negative and with the reason for the trade (15 min chart) deteriorating, there's no point in holding this any longer.

I way I have found to work well for me in making these decisions beyond technical tools is simply asking yourself, "Self, if you had the $6600 dollars sitting there in the account right now, would you buy USO right now?" If the answer is no, then there's a fairly high probability that it's not worth holding either (there are some caveats of course like we don't like chasing trades, but imagine it hadn't moved yet and I was trying to make the decision).

As for the SCO short leveraged ETF,...

Remember during the Bush II years crude jumped from the teens to the mid 100's? I do, I had entered Prudhoe Petroleum Trust when oil was around $14 a barrel and was getting a 12% dividend at the time which increased as price also eventually increased past $100 from about $12 the $12 I paid for it. I didn't catch all the gains, the only stock pick I ever gave my Uncle who worked for a MAJOR Wall St. Investment Bank with a 2 letter ticker, he ended up catching almost all of the trend. This is when I started relying on my Trend Channel which was my first indicator I received an award for.

In any case, you see that top in 2008 in USO, I called that within a week, if you consider oil had been up for about 6 years, calling the top within a week was an impressive feat. That VERY SAME WEEK, CRAMER was on his Money gone Mad or whatever his show is (I obviously don't watch) and told his viewers that on the next EIA petroleum report (Wednesdays), if it is bad and send oil lower, to buy USO and he called it a "Contrarian" trade.

Can anyone explain to me how millions of viewers all doing the same thing on the same day at virtually the same time can possibly be "Contrarian"? 

In any case, that week oil crashed, that's when you remember that Cramer is above all, a GS Alumni first and foremost so I suspect the call was to let GS sell in to demand, thus I don't watch the show or CNBC.

I believe when the global economy is hit hard by the market going down (Banks will get destroyed , which is why I think Bernie gave them this 4 year rally instead of a bailout as they have had record quarterly profits), manufacturing and all other kinds of demand will hit oil hard, I think the Yen carry will be over and the rising $USD will further effect oil on the downside.