Monday, July 16, 2012

IOC Possible Trade

"Let the trade come to you", IOC gained 7+% today on no news, in fact the only thing that looks like it may be responsible for the move is a technical breakout, but there's not enough 3C support to rule out a head fake move, in fact it looks pretty likely.

You really don't have much to lose on this one as you can wait for the failed move, remember, "From failed moves, come fast moves" as a buddy of mine says; it's just the head fake/snowball effect.

For the charts...
 These two trend lines show the former closing high and the former intraday high, today IOC moved through both.

 There was an increase in volume when the closing high was broken earlier in the day, but the volume increase on the move above the intraday high is vey clear, a very technical move as the orders were sitting there ready to go as soon as price crossed above that level and again on no news that I can find, thus it looks like a VERY technical move that Wall St. will at least make the volume rebate from if not use the volume to sell in to and set IOC p for a head fake reversal. All you really need to do is watch IOC to cross down below these two levels (volume on the break below wold be helpful) and we can check 3C again before a trade is entered, but it seems it would be fairly high probability if those levels are broken to the downside.

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 Note the triangle that formed right at the intraday high's resistance level before the breakout, this was a real technical trader's trade.

 I wouldn't jump in right now without some near term confirmation, the longer term seems to be offering it, but the 1 min chart for now is pretty much in line with price.

 The 2 min (above) 3 min and 5 min (below) charts are all negatively divergence on this parabolic breakout move. I rarely trust these parabolic moves in the first place.

 5 min

 Looking at the breakout area on a 30 min chart shows there's MUCH less 3C support now than there was at the last high that reversed, we have a long term leading negative divergence in place. Strategically this looks like a good short, it's just a matter of the tactical entry.

The 60 min chart shows the same leading negative divergence and total lack of 3C support on this move.

I'd keep it on your radar.



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