As a reminder, this is what we expected based on the charts going in to last week. On Tuesday we saw some surprising charts that were stronger than expected so we had to leave room for the charts to develop and see what was going on as it seemed something very abruptly changed in the market.
We had been expecting one more quick move to the upside, followed by a strong pullback and one more attempt at an upside short squeeze after the pullback, likely to be followed by the reemergence of the primary downtrend. We saw the short term strength we anticipated in white and then the pullback, however by 7/10 the downside in the market was not being confirmed by 3C, which gave me the impression we weren't done with the upside move that we had seen the week before (in white). Expectations were for a strong pullback which started in price, but again not confirmed in 3C.
Now we'll have to see if we are back on track with the original projection or whether we are going to see another short term round of strength before seeing that downside. The initial charts on the first day of the week and especially in a.m. trade are not always the best charts, in fact they are some of the weakest as this is prime time game playing trade early on a Monday morning, but this is what we have for now.
DIA 1 min trend seems to be leading positive this morning after some sideways consolidation on Friday.
DIA 1 min close up of late Friday's negative divergence and this morning's intraday positive at the lows.
The 2 min chart shows the same overall theme, some strength going in to late Friday in 3C, a negative divergence in to the price strength, the move lower this morning with a short term intraday positive divergence picking the market up off the intraday morning lows, this theme is pretty consistent throughout the averages. The 2 min chart isn't seeing the same amount of strength as the 1 min yet, it will be important to see if that strength migrates to the longer term charts.
The 3 min chart has the same theme, but this morning is seeing less strength that the 2 min chart as would be expected. If the 1 min chart stays strong enough, it will migrate through the 2 and 3 min charts and the short term intraday picture will improve.
DIA 5 min chart overall tends to look like that non confirmation of the move down last week may have played out with the market strength on Thurs. / Fri. as the 5 min chart is now starting to go negative here. Again, what happens on the 1, 2 and 3 min charts will be important to determining the likely course, but as of now, this 5 min chart looks like the 3C strength we saw early last week as the decline begun, has perhaps already played out in the strength from late last week.
The 15 min chart seems to be awaiting movement from the 5 min as it is in a leading positive position right now which on its own would be supportive of further market gains, but as you can see today it is starting to head down, more deterioration on the 5 min chart bleeding over to this 15 min chart may clear up the picture pretty quickly, again, what happens on the shortest timeframes will be important as it will effect what happens here.
QQQ 1 min shows the same theme on Friday and this morning as the DIA.
Again at the 5 min chart the move up from late last week looks like it's ready to unwind.
The 15 min chart in the QQQ is not as strong as the DIA, but it hasn't been for several weeks, it is slightly more positive than in line, but not giving any strong signals, the 5 min chart's direction will be important today.
SPY 1 min shows the same theme as the DIA/QQQ late Friday/ today.
The 5 min chart shows the same theme, it appears that the late in the week strength which we were warned was likely coming last Tuesday, looks like it may have run its course and we may be back on track for a pretty deep correction.
The 15 min chart on the SPY is slightly worse than in line.
No comments:
Post a Comment