Monday, July 16, 2012

The Currency Angle....

Last week the Euro/Dollar currency analysis suggested more strength in the Euro (market supportive) and weakness developing in the dollar (market supportive).

Looking at today's charts, my impression is some quick downside followed by some more strength in the market, which isn't too far off the 5 min negative charts and the 15 min "not as negative" market charts.

First the Euro (positive divergences suggest the Euro goes up which is market supportive, negative suggest down and that hurts the market.

 Euro 1 min relative negative divergence, not as strong as a leading divergence.

 2 min Euro, slight negative leading divergence.


 3 min overall trend is leading positive in a nice trend, it almost seems as if any short term negative price action would be confined to the range the Euro has been trading in as part of a base.

 Euro 5 min chart appears to be making a base from which to rally from, market supportive.

The 15 min chart looks the same, possibly any Euro downside would be within the yellow area which would keep the Euro within a consolidative base formation.

Now the $USD
 2 min trend is leading negative, this is market supportive

 Intraday the 5 min chart has a leading positive divergence, this would be in line with $USD near term price upside/Euro near term downside as suggested above, but nothing more than that (from this chart).

 $USD 3 min trend is leading negative, suggesting a substantial move down, again, perhaps any Dollar upside near term is contained to this rounding top like pattern within the yellow area, or even a possible head fake move.


$USD 15 min chart looks like the Dollar wants to move down substantially which would be market supportive.

This is bigger picture trend.

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