Monday, July 16, 2012

FB Making An Interesting Move...

I've been waiting for a FB pullback for weeks now, last week it seemed a consolidation was the only correction we would get, but this a.m. we have a strong pullback (-3.91%) and on good volume which is key. I'm considering a partial long position although I would like to give it a bit more time. Typically we don't see fast "U" shaped reversals, however FB did put in a lot of lateral consolidation before this pullback.

Here are the charts so far...

 In white, this is where we became interested in FB long, at the red arrow is resistance that once broken would represent stage 2 mark up, it's also the area in which a pullback was expected. Long term FB still seems to have enough gas in the tank to make a run for stage 2 mark up.

 The 60 min chart shows why we became interested in FB as it moved lower in to a longer term chart's positive divergence and then leading positive divergence. At resistance it gave a relative negative divergence, thus the expected correction. Overall the chart is still in a slightly leading positive position.

 Here's a head fake move, the triangle is expected to breakout to the upside, instead it follows the path of the red arrows, but made a head fake move up first in yellow to knock out new positions before pulling back.

 Ironically (or maybe not), that short term triangle formed support at long term support of a larger ascending triangle. This was the support area we expected a pullback would move towards a couple of weeks ago when FB was still pretty far from it; it's not surprising price has broken below the obvious support level on today's move which came with heavy volume, no doubt because of the break of the long term support level.

 However, so far we are seeing what I was hoping to see in a FB pullback so I could enter a new long position, the 1 min chart is leading positive and hasn't even made an attempt to confirm the downside move this morning.

 The 2 min chart is also leading positive

 As is the 3 min chart

 The 5 min chart is also leading positive, this is about as far as I would go as longer term charts take longer to catch up to new moves like this.

The 15 min chart appears to be in a relative positive position, however as I mentioned, it usually takes a little longer for these to catch up.

I'll be keeping an eye on FB as I have been waiting weeks for a pullback, I just want to make sure it looks high probability or rather, continues to look high probability.

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