Wednesday, August 29, 2012

Currencies...

Yesterday I described the Euro strength (market positive) as transient and $USD weakness as the same, these are part of the closing window of opportunity to sell/short this market. Take a look at the changes .

 The $AUD is very weak today on the SPX move, this is probably the worst sign for the market among currencies.

 Longer term, every time I can recall that the $AUD has dislocated from the SPX trend negatively it has brought a downside reversal, once at the June 4th lows the $AUD dislocated positively and the market reversed to the upside. This is not only reflective of carry trades on or off, but like commodities, shipping, etc, the $AUD is a good barometer of the health of China and Japan.  I like FXP (short China, but I'd wait for a pullback first).

 The Euro's support of the market isn't there today as it runs in the opposite direction from the SPX.

 Damage seen yesterday in the Euro, which is why I called it a closing window, continues today. Gold, equities and oil should be among the assets that will feel the pain from a lower Euro.


The Euro 5 min chart, weakness throughout longer term.


 The $USD (rising is a market negative and for oil as well-also tends to be a QE-off sentiment indication) , the intraday chart is seeing more strength building from yesterday. Oil is one to take a look at, USO (short)

$USD 60 min broke just under support, great for clearing stops and a head fake move, the 60 min chart is leading positive.

Again, this is a broad risk asset negative for stocks, commodities/oil, and typically precious metals. A move above the $22.50 not only moves above support which we are already above, but knocks out the bearish descending triangle price pattern.

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