Opening Indications

Thus far things aren't looking good for the market, if you recall it was last Wednesday and Thursday that we saw fractured positive divergences (not clean, not particularly strong), but they did manage in most cases to make it to the 5 min chart. As of Friday, the 1, 2 , 3 minute 3C charts and even 2 of the major averages' 5 min charts were already breaking down, this was unusual because after an accumulation period, no matter how small, there's usually a mark up of prices before distribution starts, this is just common sense if you think about it, you accumulate at $10 and you mark prices up to $10.15 before you start selling in to price strength to guarantee a profit on the cycle. Friday was unusual in not only did the negative divergences start the next day, but they travelled or migrated through multiple timeframes to the 3 min chart and even some 5 min charts started to turn, this is partly why I believe the distribution of assets, especially stocks like AAPL, smack of desperation. It seems there's a very limited door/window and not all are going to fit through it in time so they started selling as soon as there was any price strength, profits be damned, the door was open.

This theory fits with the 89% of hedge funds under-performing the SPX and the sheer volume of redemptions coming in September and at the end of the year, it also fits well with the very consistent, yet highly unusual 3C signals across the board as I showed you on many separate occasions, but specifically last night.

What I have been looking for are some new highs in AAPL, breakouts above triangles in the market, etc, but all of these are just a conduit to see what happens with the 5 min charts as once they break, the door closes.

The opening indications don't rule out the possibility of these higher prices which I want to use to sell longs in general and sell short in to price strength, however they also don't look good and are doing what I hoped to see, they just aren't doing it in to price strength which smacks of even more desperation.

Take a look...

 DIA 1 min not off to a strong start this a.m.

 DIA 3 min leading negative.


 DIA 5 min falling apart.

 ES not looking good on the open.

 IWM 1 min is in line, this has been the strongest average.

 However it is now seeing the most damage-2 min chart

 IWM 3 min

 And the 5 min IWM chart-this is where it counts.

 QQQ 1 min

 QQQ 2 min looking bad.

 QQQ 3 min really looking bad as it leads negative, this is where it effects the 5 min.

 And there's the effect on the QQQ 5 min

 SPY, may still be able to break above the triangle, I hope so to add shorts.

 SPY 1 min leading negative

 SPY 3 min leading negative

This is last Wed/Thursday, I'm hoping there's enough to make it above the triangle to set up additional shorts, but it's not guaranteed, although I think likely.