Member Success Story

One of my long term members, probably one of my original members had been long TLT Calls and at last I heard he made 100% on them, he asked me for 3C updates, but used the head fake concept on his own to exit TLT yesterday.

He knew $126 was a whole number, it was an area where the head fake trade would be likely as TLT filled and hit gap resistance from 8/13-8/14, he exited yesterday (last I heard at a 100% gain , but I suspect even more).

TLT is one of the assets we were looking for a short term move down as it moves opposite the market, he used the concepts though on his own to get a fantastic exit on calls which we don't want to sit in through a correction or pullback.

I can't tell you how many times I've heard, "trying to pick market tops and bottoms is a fool's game" and for the most part I agree, but what if your concepts, methods, indicators and signals give you exits at the tops and entries at the bottoms? You are no longer trying to pick tops and bottoms, you are just following you trading concepts and signals.

This is as near to a perfect exit as I have seen and he is now waiting to re-enter TLT long. I'm happy to point out trades and ideas, but I really love when you take the concepts that we employ and use them in your own trading, when you break free from the sheep and become your own wolf, thinking and acting for yourself and not blindly following the pack; there's no greater joy for me, no greater vindication of the work and observations we make than to see you each use what we have learned and continue to learn, in your own trading.

So Congratulations Sam on an amazingly well thought out and timed exit from TLT.

The charts...

 Sam's exit of TLT Calls yesterday at the head fake move on an intraday chart above the whole number/psychological level of $126. You don't get much more accurate than that and those calls are surely worth a lot less this morning.

 TLT breaking just above gap resistance, an area traders will watch and buy a break above, gap resistance and support are actually some of the strongest resistance/support areas you will find, Sam's exit on a daily chart yesterday above the yellow trendline.

 All in all, TLT/Treasuries, the flight to safety trade look good in a leading positive 60 min divergence to a new high, this isn't good for the market.

 The 15 min chart with confirmation of the trend in green and distribution right at the move above $126 and in the general area.

 The 2 min chart showing increased distribution at the head fake move-like I said, these moves happen before reversals on all timeframes, even a 2 min chart because the concept is universal, it takes advantage of technical analysis and human emotion.

Already TLT is starting to show accumulation in to lower prices on the 1 min chart as we'd expect to see, look for TLT to continue to accumulate at lower prices, soon it will be a long trade again for options, for longer term equity longs, it's still a long trade.

I am pointing out 1 member's success, I hear these stories every day and I love them, this was just an amazingly excellent exit.