Quick ES Update

After looking at ES and VWAP, I'm not surprised the signals are coming in negative and suggest at least a consolidation if not a pullback.

One thing I'll note is last week we started seeing what I can only describe as a persistent negative divergence in ES, usually the 1 min chart calls intraday moves pretty well in ES, but we have seen this "persistent negative divergence" a few times in the past, each time it was strange as I had not seen anything like that before, each time also led to a significant reversal down in the market. That divergence is back.

 This is that persistent negative divergence. I am VERY happy to see early strength, it is what I was looking for yesterday, but we got a triangle instead which was probably helpful to today's intraday move up. The persistent negative divergence is really only something I've seen on ES charts before, I'd have to think that it is persistent distribution in to higher prices which may be why the technically "bullish" triangle ended up forming yesterday, what retail sees in price and price patterns is often very deceptive or misleading.

 I suppose it's not too big of a surprise that we get some consolidation or pullback at the daily ES VWAP's upper 2nd standard deviation.

Here's the weekly VWAP on a hourly chart, the area in red is what I suspect was the actual top or reversal area, as I often remind you, the market is never going to make anything easy. Many of us who have traded for over a decade remember when a reversal was a clear reversal, now the volatility is so high on low volume (we saw another yearly record low in NYSE volume this week) that it's easy for Wall Street to keep traders guessing, especially if they rely on price alone or the standard price based indicators. Wall Street creates enough chop to basically allow anyone who has any opinion to look at a price chart and find a reason as to why their opinion is correct, but only truth is true, the volatility moves that are like staring at clouds and looking for pictures are deception, there is real activity, real changes in character under way, price alone can no longer show you this until we reach the point at which there's not much to be made. If you wait for price/trend confirmation you missed the trade.