Market Update

This is just me thinking out loud. The market as we know, has been relentless about filling gaps, it's a shame because they were so useful, in any case, the Q's have quite a gap still, I figured AAPL was part of the engine to fill the QQQQ gap, I said as much over the weekend.

Remember that Thursday's tend to close near the Friday open or op-ex pin which lasts until most contracts are closed around 2:30 to the close at which time the market is free to move. Considering we have that op-ex pin (yes, even weeklies now) coming up and Thursday between, the Q gap fill seems pretty likely or at least the attempt.

I would think a downside move (which leading indicators should be in front of just as HYG started really moving in front of yesterday and certainly today) would be more likely after the op-ex pin and that just so happens to just about fit the time needed for a Q gap fill. Of course there's the reversal process, but on a small gap fill, it shouldn't be that big.

I'll look around for more data, but judging from the Q's and HYG intraday, it looks like that is a pretty good probability.

 QQQ 1 min intraday, the gap was clearly sold, but we have small accumulation around 10 a.m., for a move higher probabilities are the Q's need to pullback and form some small base, accumulation would be at the bottom of it like 10 a.m.

 QQQ 2 min, the leading negative on the 16th was nasty and price fell the next day. At point "A" that looks like stabilization to halt the bleeding, "B" looks like pulling the Q's back to an area they can be accumulated at better prices. All of the "C" areas look like accumulation zones, keep in mind this is only a 2 min chart and therefore not heavy accumulation, but over 3 or 4 days, it's enough to back a gap fill move and maybe then some.

"D" is simply bringing the Q's back down to the accumulation zone. If you look at the 1 min chart above, the pullback happening now from the 11:20 highs shows no "steering" distribution, I'd say because they can't afford to give up shares, I think that's why HYG is being brought in on arbitrage manipulation as you'll see.

QQQ 5 min is not bullish at all, it is in line with price within a deep leading negative trend, but that's enough to help it fill the gap.

The same is true of the 10 min chart, again read the archives for June 21st, you'll see we saw accumulation popping up everywhere and too long /call positions.

QQQ 15 min at a new leading negative low, MAJOR damage so I'd be using any price strength to short in to. There's no "in line" signal here, just trouble.

HYG 1 min and it's flat price range alone should be a tip off something is happening there intraday and you can see accumulation intraday at the flat range.

At 3 min it is just in line so this isn't a strong divergence, I'd say it will be enough to support a gap fill move, but it isn't going to change HYG's trend or larger picture.

HYG 15 min, I thought I'd point out the flat range and just let you look at 3C, this is where the probabilities are.

This is why I'd look to use price strength to short in to, I wouldn't necessarily try to play any upside move with probabilities in underlying trade being so negative.

I also see individual stocks that look like they may support, AMZN which I'll get to, take DDD, look at the large volume which in this case is likely short term capitulation allowing DDD to pop to the upside. There are just a lot of small events like this.