Wednesday, July 24, 2013

VMW Charts

I was asked to look at VMW because it's moving significantly (up right now about 18%, but even higher earlier)  on apparently no news.

I will remind some of you who have been around a while, we bought RIMM (when they were RIMM) right before earnings because of the positive divergence, earnings stank and RIMM fell about 9% or rather our position, but I didn't close it for 1 simple reason, the positive divergence was larger and larger , something was going on.

Later RIMM had a big management shake-up and it flew higher and we made money on the position, but 3C was reflecting something that was assumed to be earnings, it was actually someone knew a month or so in advance that this major shake-up was coming so VMX "could" be a situation similar to that.

I would not chase this, but I will show you the charts out of interest.

This is an odd one and the kind I love to find, clearly something changed here and caused significant investment in VMW, what that is, I have no idea, but it's these sudden changes or character like AAPL Monday that are real edges, even though you'd still have to wait a bit for it to pay off.
 I used the cleaner version of 3C for the daily, although the regular version shows the same, the divergence in my view was perhaps starting months earlier, but there's a "Bowl" shaped area through July, this was the key, this is where something really changed and that is where that white arrow is pointing to accumulation, not along the entire stretch of the arrow, I'm just pointing out the relative divergence between price and 3C at two points (the left and right side of the arrow).

 A 4 hour chart is super strong, as you can see there's some sort of more traditional base trying to form since Feb and at the right pace, but June/July sat that bowl, something big changed to move a 4 hour chart like it was an intraday 1 min chart.

 The same with the 2 hour chart so we've established there was major investment here very suddenly (over a month or so).

The 15 min chart offers more detail than the longer charts, clearly this bowl is where accumulation was largest, look at the range. If you want to find stocks that are seeing institutional activity, look for flat ranges like this, there is a reason for it.

There was a final burst of accumulation right before take-off.


The 5 min chart has more detail, it's a steady stream of accumulation through that entire period.

Intraday - 2 min, there has been some profit taking, but no major distribution.

This may be a good one for my X-Over system, wait for the first pullback to the 10-day with positive RSI and my custom indicator, but the other two indications work well too.

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