Wednesday, July 24, 2013

Market Update , HYG and AMZN

A lot of people are asking about AMZN, it has held together well today. AMZN does not look to me like AAPL looked, AAPL looked like an earnings leak, AMZN looks like it is in sync with a short term market cycle, it may even be a leader. As far as earnings go, I would not dare to venture to make a call, but I do think that if Wall St. needs AMZN positive to help the market near term, they can make that happen no matter what the earnings are. After hours is easy to manipulate and retail doesn't care what the earnings are if AMZN is moving up, they'll just say, "It beat the whisper number". It may in fact beat and have a good response, but that is not what this is based on.

Also as I said, I personally WOULD not be trading much of anything long here, I'd be patient and be waiting for any potential / probable short term price strength  so I can use that to get the best tactical entries on short positions I like or want to add to.

HYG is making another attempt, this time it's not as far along as the earlier attempt, but price action looks much more conducive to accumulation (short term).



The market averages I'll just do a written update. The SPY is clearly positive to about the 3 min chart, there's some relative positive on the 5 min, but I would not consider this as anything significant; 3 mins IS enough to make a decent move, look at AAPL, it was only 1 min then made it to 5 min.

The QQQ is positive to 5 min (clearly).

The IWM, the same, 5 min so again, this is similar to AAPL at 5 min, I think it's enough short term and "IF" they can get the SPY arbitrage turned around that will also help as well as AAPL maintaining or gaining and I'll look at that in a moment.

These AMZN charts are about 7 minutes or so old, but they are still valid.

 AMZN 2 min has gained, it could use a bigger base, but it has at least some approximation of a "W" base.

AMZN 3 min looks good on its own, if the longer charts weren't so troublesome I "might " consider a call play (very quick trade like AAPL).

The AMZN 5 min has added to its positive divergence so I think that's enough to move AMZN.

 A move above the recent top is an area I'd definitely consider adding to a short, because the base area is rather small, it may be hard to get up there.

And why do I have confidence to make a move like that?

This AMZN 15 min chart speaks volumes, there's been no adjustment to it at all based on today's action and it's leading to a new low.

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