Quick Market Update

I chose the charts that I consider to be the strongest intraday for the averages, I'll also show you CONTEXT which supports the idea of a QQQ gap fill and the SPY Arbitrage which reflects simple realities.

 IWM at 2 min, try to concentrate on today to the far right.

QQQ at 5 mins, but I had to put this in perspective

SPY at about 3 mins.


 SPY Arbitrage is based on price, not underlying trade, of VXX, HYG and TLT. Between TLT and HYG both being down today, they effectively cancel each other out, that is why the earlier positives forming in HYG would have led to a positive SPY Arbitrage and helped support the market.

VIX futures are pretty close to flat, although up a bit so they really aren't moving the SPY Arbitrage model.

I think "if" the market is going to fill the gap or even maybe make that chimney I was talking about earlier in the week, I think the Arbitrage assets would need to help significantly, AAPL alone can't do it.

CONTEXT has been adjusting their ES Model weighting quite a bit lately, it's because things are happening so fast like Carry trades closed in a day or Treasuries and the way they've been acting so they are constantly trying to find the right balance between risk assets and the SPX futures/ES.

The way CONTEXT sits, would support a QQ gap fill, but the action in treasuries today is counter what you'd expect so I know that's at least one of the model's assets that would be throwing it off, still I think it's probably a matter of the degree more than direction.