This is a follow up for the last position, VXX November $15 Calls and the P/L report for
the VXX Put position entered yesterday just after 1 p.m... and
closed this morning at 10:45 a.m.
For the VXX Put entered yesterday with a cost basis of $1.90 and a fill of $2.66, the P/L came out to a gain of +40% for just over 4 hours of market exposure.
Being such a short term position I could have easily gone with a weekly like next week's expiration, but I always prefer to buy quality rather than a lotto ticket (and in the money)...
VIX Futures
The 15 min negative developing this week in VIX futures
along with last night's sell signal, really are solidifying the confirmation of an upside market move
as we have been expecting. This tells me any move in the VIX toward filling the gap, isn't likely to be much more than that and further confirms our short term expectations of market upside as the VIX trades opposite of the market.
The 5 min VIX Futures went negative yesterday (this is more of a timing timeframe than probabilities for a strong move), so this fits very well with my custom Demark Inspired Buy/Sell indicator that gave a sell signal
in last night's Daily Wrap. The leading negative distribution is pretty bad here and is migrating to the 15 min chart, but short term (intraday), the leading positive in white suggests some move to the upside which fits my expectations for the market to see an intraday pullback.
VIX Futures 1 min intraday, as you can see, the VIX futures made a new lower low on the day
as I suggested as an entry point in today's VIX Call post.
Right now we have a relative positive divegrence there. This divergence is starting to improve as I write.
I'll compare VXX (VIX short term futures) to UVXY (2x leveraged short term VIX futures) to XIV (VIX inverse short term futures) as well as VIX futures above. We have several different timeframes, all different assets trading unique volume and all different management companies for each of the assets except the actual futures.
Yesterday's distribution saw a head fake move confirmed by the leading negative divergence/distribution
which is something we see about 80% of the time just before a reversal, thus the reason I mentioned it as an entry for today's position.
As you can see, price did break to new intraday lows as I suggested, again as a lower risk entry for a new position.
UVXY 1 min from negative at yesterday's highs to the gap down and a relative positive at today's new intraday lows.
UVXY 2 min intraday confirms the distribution at the head fake / false breakout yesterday as well as a leading positive divegrence today at the presumed head fake run on stops to a new intraday low (the suggested entry area)
Even now these charts are improving suggesting accumulation of additional stops hit below the former intraday low.
XIV 2 min is the inverse of VXX , thus
yesterday's head fake was a stop run rather than a false breakout, you can see the 3C accumulation of the low confirming the head fake.
Today we have what looks like a false breakout and a negative divegrence confirming all of the charts above.
This chart has improved since its capture.
I still like VXX calls or long or UVXY long.
This looks like a good, low risk entry, a stop can always be placed a standard deviation or so below the normal daily range or wherever you chose.
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