Thursday, October 10, 2013

VXX Position

I think there's enough reason to maintain the VXX call (very short term move expected), but as you may recall it was opened as a very speculative play meaning risk management is tight on this one. I do not feel though that there's enough good reason to add to that VXX call.

If we do get the short VXX bump to the upside, rest assured the probabilities are VERY low it last long, there are VERY strong negatives on longer charts, there's the rare sell signal from my custom indicator last night, there are the other charts of the averages and Index futures that are all doing as expected and stronger than expected, the VIX ultimately I believe has essentially topped for now (except perhaps for our very short term move) and it should see some strong downside, the market trades opposite the VIX so the upside I have been looking for seems to be very high probability.

We have long leveraged positions in place as hedges and as trades, I will add to them under the right scenario, but the main job before us is to use price strength to finish up our trending short positions for a larger trend, likely primary, maybe even a secular bear market in the not so distant future.

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