Quick Market Update

I intend to get out an EOD market update as well, I just have to look at a few more things. We've obviously had an explosion to the upside, particularly in the Dow, right around 3 p.m. rather than that pullback, however we still have signs and signals for a pullback. It see,s to me that they'll try to keep the ramp up in to the close, but the TICK data has fallen off pretty bad from +1500 during the ramp to neutral now, that's a break of the TICK trend.

SPY Arb wasn't used, I have a feeling the NY F_E_D's trading desk was. SPY Arb is negative about $1.00 and ES has reverted to the mean and ES and the model are nearly exact with only a differential of $1.66!!!

So the market is in the right spot for a pullback, whether it gets it or not is what I'm looking at. The SPY 1-5 are neg. intraday and suggest a pb, the Q's had an inline 1 min which is very good , but it just started leading deeply negative quickly, the other intraday timeframes will allow for that p.b.

The IWM will allow for the pb as intraday charts go and as strong as the DIA charts have become, I think they'll allow for it as well.

Index Futures are ALL in line on intraday 1 min, but all are in perfect shape on 5 mins for a pb, so that's important as well.

I think it's still a good probability, although at this point the shape of the base will have changed and the most likely outcome will have as well for the ultra short term.

TICK is now trending negative after going back to ZERO so we may get some weakness in to the close, it depends on who the invisible hand is pulling the strings.

I'm looking at VIX futures closely, I may add to today's position , I'll let you know.