Thursday, October 10, 2013

Here we go...

There are a lot of assets that can be traded intraday short and then should make for nice (longer than intraday, but still short duration positions).

For example, USO should see a decline, to play it I think you need leverage (there are some 2x short crude, the 3x are very illiquid) or you can use a put, but I think the wiser tactic is to let the pullback do its thing and look for the assets that saw the strongest accumulation of the pullback, "A Constructive Pullback".

I would say chances are VERY high that USO would be a constructive pullback/long, so there's a very short term short, a longer term, but still short duration long after that and that should set up a long duration/trend position short trade.

You could do the same with just about anything, but I think I'll leave it at the VXX position and just spend the rest of the time looking for the (best) next trade rather than spend a lot of time managing a lot of small moves, which is what was expected last night (a larger footprint to the reversal area which allows the market better support on a run higher). The higher we can get the market to run, the more longs will step in and set up downside momentum (as they step in to a bull trap) when the market makes that 3rd turn (down) and the more shorts that get squeezed, the better the entries on those trend shorts or core shorts, for instance, USO ABOVE it's range (it's below the range now).

I'm going to take a look at my Russell 3000 MSI (Most Shorted Index) and see what's transpiring as well as Leading Indicators, then I'll get some more trade set ups out.

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