Futures Update

It's a bit hard to look at intraday timeframes as everything moves so fast by the time I capture, upload and write the post, but this is generally in line with what I saw in the averages, the 1/2 min charts were largely in line so no divergence, thus this morning's Initial Claims sent futures lower with the USD/JPY / $USD weakness. There was a 3 min positive on most charts, that looks like what we may be seeing develop on some of the 1 min charts. You'll notice though after that it gets uglier and uglier from 5 mins out to 60 mins, actually 4 hours. Also you can see the positive divegrence in Treasuries (Futures).

Example charts

 ES 1 min , there's also a almost complete (the 3C pivot hasn't locked in yet) 1 min SPY positive divergence.

NQ 1 min with the weaker divergence form, a relative positive, the Q's have a similar relative positive, again the weaker form

TF 1 min, the IWM has no 1 min positive so the very small, very weak one here is in line with the IWM for the moment. There are some positives on slightly longer charts as already mentioned, around 3 min mark.

USD/JPY negative right in to the Initial Claims (8:30 a.m. EDT) release, sending USD/JPY just below the BOj's line in the sand at $102, it's likely they'd lift all offers to defend $102. It does apear there's a 1 min positive here.

And the $USDX also has a 1 min positive. I don't know if this is anything more than defending $102 and not letting it slip, it seems to be that, this is what I expected yesterday and thus far through the overnight session $102 seems to have been defended.

As mentioned, you get in to the institutional timeframes and things go downhill like this ES 5 min

Or the NQ 5 min (NASDAQ Futures)

TF has a relative positive 5 min, there's something similar on the IWM, I'm not sure it will hold though, however it wouldn't be uncommon as there's a 3+ day downtrend in the Russell 2000 futures/ IWM so a relief bounce wouldn't be uncommon.

Note that this is all this week, Friday at near the close we were looking for upward momentum to die and the resolution of the head fake move to begin, I'd say this is a pretty good start as this is all since Monday.

 The further we go out, the worse it gets, that's where the probabilities are and they effect the probabilities for resolution of shorter term charts, take this ES (SPX E-mini Futures) 15 min leading negative

Or NQ 15 min (NASDAQ 100 Futures) in a flat range leading negative.

And further out, even worse, TF / Russell 2000 futures leading negative.

 60 min NQ (NDX) leading negative, note the flat 4-day range and RSI declining as well, this is the one chart I mentioned yesterday that would be ripe for a head fake the longer that range persists.

As for the "Flight To SAFETY" Trade, Treasuries, it looks like it will be back on which should benefit out TBT short (essentially long TLT 2x).

 5 year futures are leading positive (30 min), these are the yields I use for Leading Indicators that work so well, so a rising 5 year bond would send yields lower which tend to pull the market toward them.

The 10 year is the most mediocre, but it's positive out here on this 30 min.

And related to TLT, the 30 year bond is leading positive with a flat reversal process in place. If you like the idea of the TLT long trade, I actually used TBT (the inverse of TLT with 2x leverage) and shorted it, essentially giving me a 2x leveraged TLT, which you can get in ETFs, but the volume is so dismal I wouldn't mess with it.