Thursday, June 12, 2014

MCP Trade Management

MCP was a fun trade last week, we waited most of the day as it bounced around $2.53-$2.57 until we got a break of $2.50 on 6/3 and then, Trade Idea: MCP Filling out Long Equity & New Calls Position.
The next day we had a 12% move in the stock, a nice move in the call options as well, but it was time to close those out for a decent double digit 1-day gain, Taking MCP Calls Off the Table .

Since then, we've just been waiting for it to finish up its reversal process from a head fake move we expected which came post earnings. So far that is looking like an Inverse H&S bottom, but the most important aspect would be the probabilities,
 Wit a 60 min chart like this that held up and even gained on the downside move, the probabilities are solidly positive which means short term charts are likely to resolve in a positive manner. The 12% gain was nothing compared to what stage 2 mark-up would look like in MCP, I'm guestimating on the conservative side, a move upwards of 600% from here.

We closed the calls tye next day because the short term charts suggested a pullback, I held the long equity position because it was filled at such an advantageous spot, there's no point in moving it. What we look for in  a pullback is accumulation...

 The 1 min chart is doing just that, from here we look for migration to longer intraday charts...

The 2 min is doing that. USually things get more serious around the 5 min chart...

And there it is.

I'm not saying this is the spot to buy if you are not in MCP and would like to be, I do think it's a very reasonable area to consider it long, but the signals could improve from here and give a slightly better entry. However, for the time being, this is what I would call a "Constructive pullback", the kind we want to buy in to.

No comments: