GDX/NUGT Follow Up

Here are the charts and the reason I decided to just stick it out beyond the AAPL lesson which was a painful one, to be making the case for so many months for a massive decline as AAPL hits new highs, to be in place with a short and to lose that short to try to get a 3% better entry!!! This is when no one could say anything bad about AAPL lest you be treated like a leper.

 First off my minimum targets for GDX are $34-$39, in all honesty, I expect a lot more from them , as in primary bull market, but I'm just using the price pattern implied target.

 I'm not entirely sure which base pattern to go with, an inverse H&S base?

Or a Cup and Handle base?

This is what the 3-day 3C chart looks like, note the Complex Head and Shoulders Top to the left (complex because there are 2 left and right shoulders). There's clear distribution. The numbers are the 3 places I'll short a H&S, the top of the head, top of the right shoulder/s and after the initial break below the neckline (which is where technical traders short these), there's almost always a move to shakeout the new shorts that predictably chase price as it breaks below the neckline, they place stops above it and tend to be shaken out of an otherwise good trade, so that's the area I WON'T short it and the shakeout is the last place I will.

The base is a good 8 months of accumulation, this is why I think a sub $40 target is probably VERY conservative.

 This would be the 4 hour chart if we look at this as an inverse H&S bottom...

There's strong accumulation at the area of the cup and it increases at the handle as it should.

Here we have a bearish descending triangle, we expected a head fake move below this since traders already expect it to break below the bearish consolidation, however the one thing I should have included on this chart is volume, it shot was up as support of the descending triangle was broken, but that supply was accumulated as you can see with this 2 hour chart. In yellow we have a "U" shaped reversal process, we picked up some shares in this area and waited for some charts to look a bit better in the mid-term 10-15 min area.

Here's the 60 min chart showing accumulation of the head fake/shakeout move which could have been some stops, I think there were probably a lot of shorts in the area as well which probably accounts for some of the recent momentum as their stop level would have been taken out this week.

The 5 min chart is in line, if I back out the longer view, it's actually leading positive in a big way.

The point here though is, "if" this chart were negative, I'd probably take the gains and wait for a pullback, it is not which tells me the pullback probably won't be that large so it's not worth the risk of missing the trade, especially if there's more of a short squeeze.

 Here the 3 min chart shows the accumulation for tis move and it falling short of confirmation, this is about as bad as the pullback gets, plus some gaps and a move that's a bit parabolic, but understandably so, you'll see below.

Back to the daily, any shorts entering on the break below the triangle where volume increased would have put stops right above that same trendline which would have been hit this week, thus short covering and a parabolic move as short covering tends to look like that.

So I'm going to hang in there, I planned this as a longer term trade.

If you are interested, I'd set alerts for a pullback and recognize that GDX and NUGT are still very low in the base and in excellent buying position, I'd rather do it though on a pullback rather than chasing.