I don't have a lot to say that I didn't already say, we'll see what happens. As I mentioned last week, there was a positive divergence starting in the dollar, so the pullback there could be coming to an end. There was also a positive divergence in Treasuries-short and long so look for some action there this week as well. As you know I haven't like Gold for awhile, but now the 10 minute chart is in a leading divergence, I'd watch for a continuation of Friday's downside move. Silver should come under pressure too, it's showing a 1 min and a really nasty 5 minute negative leading divergence, I'm not sure why it held up Friday, but I don't expect that to last.
Oil is starting to look indecisive, except on the 1 minute timeframe, there it looks bad, those could be a reflection of the accumulation in the dollar. The longer term charts seeming in disarray may be a switch from one sentiment to another with the 1 minute leading the way, we'll have to see if those charts come into line.
The 1 minute on the SPY is in a negative position, it doesn't look horrible, but it's not confirming the recent uptrend. It's the longer term charts that look bad there whereas they looked good before the bounce so as you know, I'm expecting a change there soon. The one minute chart may need to go into a leading negative divergence before we see that change or it may not, that could happen in half a day.
It's largely the same for the IWM and DIA, but the QQQQ has one particularly large negative 5 min leading divergence, I'm wondering if it is going to be the weaker of the 4?
In any case, will wait for some confirmation before acting too aggressively on the market, the treasuries, Dollar and precious metals may be something you want to take a look at now, maybe get your toes wet.
I don't see anything important on the economic calendar tomorrow.
I'll see you in the a.m.
5 years ago
2 comments:
I think we now have a clearer picture as to the catalyst that was in question. It seems alot of the bogus bank stress test are now coming back into play as well as the soveriegn debt of Europe. In addition a slowdown in the US and now China would be disatrous for Europe. News release are saying that the Banks of Europe need billions of new capital. Maybe the big boys were also waiting for more traders to return from summer vactions to have max effect.
It seems so, this was no coincidence. This is how it works, we see something they are up to and we have to trust blindly in following their trades as we don't know how it will end, but 99.9% of regular traders don't have a clue and think this is all about a moving average, a Fibonacci number or something else like that.
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