Wednesday, February 2, 2011

Did I not Just Say This Yesterday and the Day Before?

This isn't a victory lap, it's just that obvious.

Here's the article


Additionally, as I said last night, the Euro concerns will return in the fear cycle, they have. The next wave of Euro contagion fears in the fear cycle starts today. Just look at the Euro


As for the developments out of Egypt, there are now violent counter protests. Remember Stratfor's information that Egyptian Internal Security Services had been dressed as civilians and robbing banks, breaking in businesses and homes, and committing all manner of crimes to make the people fear what Egypt would look like without Mubarak, more then the fear of a future under his regime. 


After more then a week of protests, we have seen nothing that suggested there was a large and violent pro-Mubarak contingent. As of Stratfor's forecasts last night, apparently the only people who want to see him stay according to sources close to the regime-are his close business associates. As usual, there's more then meets the eye here. When I say the regime, I'm not talking about Mubarak's presidency itself, I'm talking about the military regime that has dictated the leaders since Nasser led a military coupe in 1952 which displaced the Egyptian Monarchy. That regime was secular, after his death Anwar Sadat replaced him, again chosen from and by the military. After his assassination Hosni Mubarak was chosen from the most highly esteemed branch of the armed services, the air force. It is this military regime that is now in trouble-Mubarak is a footnote at this point and the military will soon depose him as his presence continues to fuel the protests which threaten the military regime's existence. 


Interestingly now we have violent pro-Mubarak protesters-at least that's their cover. 


This will not be good for the market. I'm currently scanning my watchlist for opportunities based on developments. Anyone with ideas as to how this can effect different sectors, feel free to email me and I'll look through those sectors as well. 


Oil is an obvious play, Gold may be as well and shipping could certainly be hurt. Food/commodities are also under investigation as well as support sectors like agricultural support-chemicals, equipment, etc.  It also may be time to look at the defense sector and a continuing play is American conglomerates that have significant overseas exposure. MCD was the first on our list for shorts in that area and has done well. Foreign Banking is certainly worth looking into.


I'm not trying to be your news source, but there's opportunities and I want us to find them while they are in good setups. Input is always appreciated.

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