Not only does ORLY look bad, but the sub-industry and the majority of its components look bad as well. The industry has a lot to do with the stock's daily movements as does the market of course. However, in choosing a candidate, I liked this one the most as it seems to have the least amount of manipulation, it's kind of the sort of trade we used to see several years ago before HFTs and Black Box systems plus Fed intervention gave us this crazy volatile market we have now. So take a look, I'm sure you'll find it interesting.
Here's a linear regression channel in blue (click on the chart for an expanded view) which has held the entire leg move up. The breakdown is sharp and looks very clean.
A closer look at the daily chart, note the bear flag at the red arrows, it broke just like a bear flag should, no black box pattern manipulation. The recent consolidation is being tested today at support. A few cents below and the next leg down should begin.
The daily 3C chart has been bearish on this chart as you see distribution into the December top and right now 3C is in perfect confirmation.
A slight caution that there may be a bounce at support as you see a slight positive 3C divergence on the 5 min chart, still, I like this and may consider this a trade to phase into starting here.
The original version of the Trend Channel held the entire uptrend right until the end of the arrow. It has also held the downtrend thus far and puts a current stop at $57.92. Once there's a break and some downside momentum, the trend channel will catch up fairly quickly and narrow the stop.
Looking at a Heiken-Ashi price chart with Bollinger Bands, you can see today's negative candle, as well as in traditional candlestick charting, but more importantly is the volatility squeeze in the bands which implies a highly directional move is about to occur. Volume at Price looks like I'd expect .
If you have any questions about this trade, feel free to email me.
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