The close

I didn't know we had so many day traders when I said to contact me if you wanted to play the end of day sell-off in the SPY. Everyone is happy,  don't know what kind of leverage their using, but the trade worked out. So, I closed the SPXU into the close.

The market has had a lot of bad news and it hasn't moved much out of what looks like a triangle which has seen some significant long term negative divergences. I usually suspect a head fake move before a reversal on a common pattern like this and it made sense with the heavy open interest in SPY $135 calls that they would be pinned today, which also means if there's to be the head fake upside move I suspect, it had to wait until after the $135 calls were pinned, $134s expired worthless as well.

So next week should be interesting. Mondays historically are the most profitable upside day of the week and the S&P closed right at support. It just seems very likely to me that there will be one last hurrah to trap bulls before the a downside reversal would take effect. So far, so good.

Remember, from economic reports to the Fed minutes there was a lot of bad news this week. The very fact that the market didn't break down this week seems to lend some credibility to the idea that they'll move the market into an upside shakeout.

USO showed good early momentum and for those who have been trading it, buying at support and selling at resistance, they've done well this week too. The 3C close on USO looked a little weak and price action definitely lost momentum as it approached the breakout area. Hopefully for those who want a shot at this trade, but haven't pulled the trigger yet, we'll see 1 more move to support, although beware that the last move before a breakout is likely to see a downside shakeout (so don't be too quick to judge price action).

Silver too saw early upside momentum and then just ran down the descending breakout trendline. I saw a lot of stocks and commodities today that ran right up to a breakout level and stopped. It was like the market just hit the pause button.