Friday, May 20, 2011

USO Update

 The range in USO which I preferred to buy at the bottom of the range, is starting to take shape as a descending triangle, which historically is a bearish continuation pattern. However, the range (apex) of the triangle is tightening up significantly and if it's going to break out, it should be coming soon. I think there may be enough room/time for one more pass at support, which is the ideal place to buy USO as the risk is limited in that area.

 The hourly chart has shown multiple positive divergences at support in the range.

Notice how even a slight break below support, feeds the snowball effect (to the upside). If you are already in this trade near support, then you have a trade that doesn't appear to have much risk other then that of a gap against you on an open. If you like the trade, I might wait to see if there's one more pass at support where risk is less, but leave enough room for a false downside shakeout, which often happens before a breakout move. This morning's may have been the one as there was a descent amount of stops hit there.

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