I can't claim any special status as an ardent believer that the Euro Project would fail, there are two camps, those who believe and those who don't. I never believed it would last, to take so many different cultures, so many different economies in various stages and make them all adhere to the dogma of a single currency, in my view violates the sovereign status of the member states. Greece may have been much better off deflating their own currency, but the EU as a whole will not do such a thing for a single member state.
As I've recently found out, it's like living in an association (which I hate), it's your home, but you have to follow the rules set forth by those in power. Greece wasn't very good at that. Within 6 months of receiving their bailout, they had already lied and covered up problems that were leading to another possible Greek default.
I remember travelling to Europe and many Europeans I perceived as being jealous of America. I was always asked sarcastically or had it mentioned to me, how the Euro was stronger then the dollar and always thought, "well that stinks for me as a tourist, but economically, your bragging about an anchor around your leg".
As has been mentioned here, regional German elections show that the German people are fed up with bailouts for the PIIGS. The Finns are as well and now Norway has stopped making payments to the Greeks.
I tend to think the Euro experiment I already past the point of no return in its current incarnation. Member states are starting to enact border controls which is at odds with the EU ideals. They're voting against bailing out those that are falling by the way side, lest it drag them down with them as well.
I also think the EU experiment will end with a bang and not a fizzle. It's a small area, which makes it neat to travel, a few hours drive in any direction and you're in a totally different culture. However these cultural differences are starting to see a lot of pent up animosity turn into policy action.
The Greeks final swing may be to threaten, as I believe they did, to exit the EZ and stick the members with the debt. This makes the most sense and while the dreams of a unified Europe seemed beneficial, the facts that are emerging each week with news from different countries, it's always me first. Only those who benefit by the EU want it to stay together and it seems there are less and less in that camp.
Don't forget the DB trade. Long term, this is one of the banks that will be hit hard by the slow unravel of the EU.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
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Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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